KEY POINTS:
Do you know what the difference is between this time last year and now? We're in a 'normal' weather pattern set up. In other words, we don't have La Nina (typically muggy and wet for most) or El Nino (usually windy and dry nationwide).
We have had some amazing temperatures over the past 5 or 6 weeks and while some regions are definitely looking at a drought coming towards them most other regions are not.
In fact it would take some drastic change in the weather patterns to put us all back to where we were last year - and while anything is possible in the weather world it's certainly not looking likely as I write this blog entry.
The one big difference about this summer is the fact that rain bearing fronts are still making it into a number of regions - mostly moving in from the west or north. Even the dry places are still receiving a few showers here and there, it's not really enough to have any positive impact on the farmers - except maybe on their spirits - but it does show that we don't have what I would call an "aggressive" set up.
What I mean by that is, nothing is holding so firm it can't be budged. We have had some cracker highs that have given us some great weekends - that's likely to happen again this weekend actually - but we've also seen lows forming around the country that have brought in rain. For some places they've had a good soaking, followed by a few dry days, then a couple light showery days.
In Auckland the rainfall has been good for grass and plant growth and while some of the fields are turning browner it's still green as far as the eye can see. Waikato is also green and while farmers always love more rain I think most this year will be pretty relieved to see December looking greener than last year.
But we can't forget those dry places - mostly areas like Hawkes Bay and Canterbury. Conditions there are becoming serious and I've definitely noticed an increase in emails from farmers desperately wanting it to rain.
There could be a few sprinkles today over Hawkes Bay - places like Wairoa and Gisborne may see showers overnight and tomorrow too. But mostly these two regions (Hawkes Bay and Canterbury) are seeing the wet stuff brush past their coastlines with hardly a drop making it to land.
Weather for going on holiday definitely looks good this summer - and because we're not in an "aggressive" weather pattern at this stage then I think the chances of having a dry run are definitely good.
If current patterns remain until after Christmas and New Year then most places should roughly get six dry days in every week - and that seventh might just be a cloudy one with drizzle and a few showers.
Philip Duncan
Pictured above: A starling investigates the first pohutukawa flowers of the season in the native "Christmas trees" that line the foreshore at Mt Maunganui beach. Photo / Alan Gibson
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