Holiday weather likely to be warm but windy

Revellers in eastern parts of the country - particularly Napier, Tauranga and Dunedin - are expected to get the lion's share of the good weather on Christmas Day.

Forecasters are predicting generally good weather throughout the country but also some strong winds.

The MetService says the good news on the weather front begins this weekend for Aucklanders, who can expect to see less of the high humidity that has caused many a sleepless night in recent weeks. By the middle of next week, there will be cool westerly flows over the whole country.

Windy Wellington is expected to live up to its nickname on Christmas Day, but the outlook is better for Boxing Day, with long spells of fine weather.

Although it is too early to eliminate any particular weather patterns ahead for New Year's Day, there are three most likely outcomes, according to MetService spokesman Bob McDavitt.

"Troughs coming from the Tasman Sea; large highs sitting over the country; or lows, depressions, nasty things coming in from the north, which could also include a tropical cyclone."

Overall, forecasters say holidaymakers will experience a warmer - and possibly wetter - summer than last year.

Average or above average air temperatures are expected in every region over summer. "It's certainly looking warmer [than last year]," says Dr Jim Salinger from the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa). People in the northern North Island can expect the rest of this month to be "drier than warmer", with average or above average rainfall up to March. Rainfall is likely to be normal or below normal in the west and south of the South Island and near normal elsewhere.

Niwa is also predicting a 70 per cent chance of a tropical cyclone passing near the country between now and April (the cyclone season).