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Newstalk ZB is putting on a brave face but media insiders expect a renewed battle for the radio breakfast ratings when long-reigning king Paul Holmes abdicates his throne in three weeks.
Holmes will step aside for Mike Hosking on December 19, in a carefully planned move announced by ZB in March last year.
It might have seemed like a good idea 22 months ago but Holmes is hitting his best ratings.
Industry commentators are not sure Hosking will be able to pull the same listener numbers, with one predicting an "intense" battle between ZB and RadioLive.
Media commentator Martin Gilman said that the departure of Holmes after 22 years as ZB host could make or break the popular show - and give RadioLive's Marcus Lush a ratings boost.
But Holmes, Hosking, and Newstalk ZB boss Bill Francis expect a more seamless transition.
Gilman expected ZB's ratings to take a slight dip because of Hosking's ability to "polarise an audience".
"People either love him or hate him, and that was certainly true when he was on breakfast television.
"I think people have more empathy towards [Holmes].
"Even though he's been around for a long time on television, Hosking is still relatively unknown.
"There's a whole audience that have grown up with Holmes, and they might not respond well to change."
Gilman said Holmes' "forthright" style was attractive to his conservative early-morning listeners, who "want someone to tell it like it is". "It's going to be quite an intense shift. It's going to be interesting to see what happens."
Francis said there was potential for the ratings to slide during the switch, but he expected no major impact long-term.
"I'm not nervous about the switch and we're expecting a rather seamless change.
"Hosking is widely recognised and people are ready for the switch with Paul. He's jumped in as his replacement when Paul hasn't been there for the last two or three years, so we're not starting with someone new and unrecognised.
"We expect it to go smoothly, but there's no doubt Paul is the most unique broadcaster we've had over the last couple of decades."
Holmes said his departure had only started to hit him in the past week.
He will host the 9am-noon Saturday show from next year - the slot that Hosking currently hosts.
Holmes hated the word retirement, and said with the Saturday show, his Herald on Sunday column, and his flourishing olive oil business, he would be very busy.
"Mike is a very, very good broadcaster... over the past three or four years, and I hope this doesn't sound patronising, he has grown as a broadcaster. We are different, but his approach to broadcasting is 100 per cent. He's got good pace and got a good ear for what people want to hear. I think Newstalk ZB is in good hands."
RadioLive has been building its profile in Auckland in anticipation of Holmes' departure, but the latest ratings survey shows it is far behind Newstalk ZB.
RadioLive's Auckland share of the market has increased from 2.3 per cent to 2.9 per cent, but Lush's show hasn't budged at a rating of 2.3 per cent.
Holmes draws in 20.9 per cent of breakfast listeners, and the station attracts 12.9 per cent nationwide.
Hosking said he felt ready for the shift. "It's been a long time coming and that's why it was announced a while ago, so I feel very excited and ready for it.
"I have incredibly large shoes to fill but it's a challenge I'm looking forward to. I think people are ready for it.
"People only react badly when they wake up one morning and the person they knew isn't there."
