It doesn't seem so long ago that Auckland created its first million-dollar suburb - so it may seem odd, in the middle of a market dip, to suggest the city's first two-million-dollar patch may not be too far away.
While the health of the New Zealand economy will have a strong influence on just when that will happen, it's likely to be sooner rather than later. Even if prices drift for a couple more years before edging up with inflation, the first two-million-dollar suburb should be with us by 2020. If all goes well with the economy, perhaps a year or two earlier.
Within the uncertainty, there is one sure thing: Herne Bay will get there first, and there will be daylight back to the rest of the pack. The lovely old suburb spread over the northern slopes running down to the inner-Waitemata Harbour is our most expensive enclave, and nothing is going to change that.
It owes its status to its compact and prime inner-city location and a housing stock of uniform quality, unlike some other classy Auckland suburbs where mansions mix with slightly more modest homes to level out the average price indicator.
In Herne Bay, $1.6 million buys an "average" home. Entry level for a standard property is above $900,000 and you'll need to scratch together $10 million and more for a handful of superior homes.
If $1,634,111 (the average price for a house in Herne Bay assessed by QV's E-Valuer system for the quarter ending June 30) sounds an awful lot of money now, it's interesting to see how prices have changed since the downturn. Two years earlier, the average QV valuation for the suburb was $1,716,111. At the same time, the quarterly median sale price hit $1,932,500. But that was on the basis of just 10 sales and suggests more higher-value houses sold that quarter, pulling up the median.
In the June 2010 quarter, Herne Bay and Parnell were the biggest movers - both up 4.2 per cent, cementing Parnell's number two position in the list of the country's most expensive suburbs.
Stanley Pt dropped down a spot as Takapuna - omitted from the list in the last edition of Property Report because a lack of sales meant an accurate assessment of average value couldn't be reached - came charging back. Epsom dipped below the million-dollar mark to fall from fourth to sixth and Remuera edged up a spot to fifth.
If all this talk about million-dollar homes is depressing, you may find solace in our list here of Auckland's bargain suburbs where a three-bedroom home on a decent lump of land will still give you plenty of change from $300,000.
All of the cheaper suburbs, except for Wellsford, are in Manukau City and all of them - again, except for Wellsford - suffered sliding values in the June quarter. Otara, Greater Auckland's cheapest corner, dipped the most and values there are now less than half the city regional median.
AUCKLAND
THE QUARTER CLIMBERS % UP
1 Wellsford 10%
2= Herne Bay and Parnell 4.2%
4 Arkles Bay 3.3%
5 Snells Beach 3.2%
6. Waiuku 2.7%
7= Stanmore Bay and Army Bay 2.5%
9 Omaha 2.4%
10 Orewa 2.2%
* List shows the areas recording the biggest house price gains in the three months to June 30, 2010. Source: QV's E-Valuer.
THE QUARTER SLIDERS % DOWN
1 Otara 5.8%
2 Manurewa 5.6%
3= Hillcrest and Glendene 5.5%
5 Northpark 4.5%
6 Chatswood 4.3%
7 Clendon Park 4.2%
8 Milford 4.1%
9= Half Moon Bay and Glenfield 4%
* List shows the areas recording the biggest house price drops in the three months to June 30, 2010. Source: QV's E-Valuer.
AUCKLAND'S MILLION DOLLAR CLUB
1 Herne Bay $1,634,111 (up 4.2%)
2 Parnell $1,290,444 (up 4.2%)
3 Takapuna $1,049,111
4 Stanley Pt $1,016,278 (down 1.8%)
5 Remuera $1,007,333 (up 1.4%)
6 Epsom $999,389 (down 1.2%)
7 Mission Bay $975,667 (down 3.5%)
8 Devonport $923,167 (down 2.2%)
9 Campbells Bay $912,222 (up 1%)
10 Freemans Bay $879,333 (down 0.3%)
* List shows the wider Auckland areas recording the highest E-Valuer estimate of average value at June 30, 2010, with rise/fall compared to the previous quarter. Source: QV. Takapuna did not record enough appropriate sales in the previous quarter to allow a comparison.
AUCKLAND'S BARGAIN SUBURBS
1 Otara $236,667 (down 5.8%)
2 Clendon Park $254,722 (down 4.2%)
3 Tuakau $276,889 (down 1.6%)
4 Wellsford $281,611 (up 10%)
5 Manurewa East $284,222 (down 3.6%)
6 Manurewa $288,778 (down 5.6%)
7 Mangere East $291,778 (down 0.6%)
8 Clover Park $294,500 (down 3.2%)
9 Randwick Park $296,222 (down 3.3%)
10 Mangere $297,778 (down 0.2%)
* List shows the wider Auckland areas recording the lowest E-Valuer estimate of average value at June 30, 2010. Source: QV.
* From the New Zealand Herald's quarterly 'Property Report' - a guide to house prices and great places to live.
Herne Bay still tops Auckland's million-dollar suburbs
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