Our addiction to real estate has not been cured by experience, as the Government hoped. House prices, as we report today, have now climbed back to their 2007 peak, banks are again offering loans of up to 95 per cent of a purchase price and investors are back in the market, raising mortgages on the house they live in to buy another.
The warnings that property prices can fall as well as rise are being ignored. The fact is property prices in Auckland did not fall very much after the bubble burst in 2007. The market lost volume more than value. Sellers withdrew from the market and buyers waited, expecting that prices would have to come down eventually.
But the sellers have been able to hold out, which suggests they had not borrowed more than the property rent could cover. If they were investing for a capital gain, they had not over-reached the earning power of the property, as had been supposed.
Rents were increased and now, with sale prices picking up, owner-investors are still in no hurry to capitalise. There remains a shortage of houses for sale that has become so acute some desperate buyers are going door-to-door or sending personal letters, and agents are cold-calling owners again.
The predicament for first-home seekers is now worse than it was during the boom. Prices are as high as they were then but far fewer homes are available. Nearly all are being offered by auction, as happens when a market is volatile, and new investors can usually outbid a young couple looking for a home of their own at a price that will keep a mortgage within their means.