As the results of Election 08 begin to roll in we'll bring you analysis from Herald political commentators Audrey Young, Fran O'Sullivan and John Roughan.
KEY POINTS:
10.58pm: Central city seats reveal interesting results
Fran O'Sullivan: It's all over bar the shouting. Some of the interesting results coming through now are from Wellington Central where Grant Robertson - former staffer working for Helen Clark on the ninth floor - has defeated Stephen Franks.
This means Stephen Franks won't make it back into parliament. He was a former ACT MP who contested Rodney Hide for leadership of the ACT Party but then tried to get back in this election for National and was put way down on the list. National would have had to get over 60 seats in the house for Stephen to get in, so that's another career gone.
The other interesting thing in Auckland Central is seeing the debut of Nikki Kaye taking out Judith Tizard. It's a very intriguing result really and quite an insight into the way things are going.
Winston Peters made a very gracious kind-of concession. He conceded defeat tonight but is not yet conceding that New Zealand First is dead and buried for the future. However for New Zealand First to come back in 2011 would take an extraordinary feat and would be very difficult to do as a party without any seats in parliament.
10.24pm: Waitakere, New Plymouth and West Coast indicate mood for change
John Roughan: At this stage I'd say it's even more certain for a National government. When you've got electorates like Waitakere, New Plymouth and West Coast going to National, that's the sort of thing that used to happen in landslide swings in the old FPP system and even though MMP will make things closer it's a pretty definite trend and the result looks pretty certain now.
10.12pm: ACT votes sending a message to National
Fran O'Sullivan: I'm definitely calling it for National but one of the big things coming through tonight has been the performance of ACT. That significant vote of around 3.7 - giving them at this stage of the evening around 5 seats in parliament - is a bit of a message to National that a number of their centre-right voters want ACT in there to stiffen the backbone of National.
There's a strong sense that National has moved incredibly towards the centre compared to, say, the 2005 election. This is very much a message from its voter base by bringing in ACT that they'll be expected to keep their policies in a much more stringent fashion than might otherwise be the case.
The results coming out of Rimutaka suggests that New Zealand First hasn't made it back and that's quite historic in terms of it being 'Goodnight Nurse' for Winston Peters.
9.34pm: A dozen Labour-held seats under threat
Audrey Young: National is way out in front and it looks like it will be able to form a Government with Act and United Future, if, as looks likely, New Zealand First comes in under five per cent.
That's if United Future leader Peter Dunne actually wins his seat. With almost a third of votes cast in Ohariu, Dunne is ahead of sitting Labour list MP Charles Chauvel but by only 255 votes.
There are some very close electorate contests underway. About a dozen Labour-held seats are under threat tonight from National Party challengers.
The latest two to get close are Waitakere, where list MP Paula Bennett is just ahead of Labour's Lynne Pillay, a former union organiser.
And top union official Carol Beaumont is under threat in Maungakiekie from Sam Lotu-Liga. Beaumont won selection after longer-serving MP Mark Gosche retired. Lotu-liga is an Auckland City Councillor.
Among the seats under threat are seven held by ministers: Damien O'connor in West Coast-Tasman, Harry Duynhoven in New Plymouth; Judith Tizard in Auckland Central, Clayton Cosgrove in Waimakariri; Darren Hughes in Otaki, Steve Chadwick in Rotorua; and Mahara Okeroa in Te Tai Tonga.
It is too early to say that they will lose their seats but wther or not they survive will depend on the final vote, the number of electorate seats and their list placings. But Duyhoven llike George Hakwins chose not to be on the list and so has no life line.
With more than 60 per cent of the vote counted, Jonathan Young (a brother) is ahead by 823 votes.
As I have been writing this Pillay has just regained the lead over Paula Bennett in Waitakere but this seat has not been considered a close one.
My next post will be from Labour HQ.
9.11pm: Significant shift apparent
Fran O'Sullivan says that at this point of the 2005 election people called victory for National too early.
"This time around I'm calling victory now. The trend's there. I'm pretty confident that what we're seeing in some of the seats - Auckland Central, seats like that - is indicating a significant shift."
She said the biggest surprise of the night so far was that the Greens were not coming through as strongly as she had originally expected given what the polls have been indicating this week.
"We've still got those big South Auckland seats to come through though, so we'll be watching right into the night.
"I've been quite surprised that NZ First has polled as high as it has (around 4.5 percentage points) but unless they can bring home Rimutaka for Ron Mark it's looking as if it's a gonner for Winston Peters."
8.04pm: Trend looks fairly decisive
John Roughan says while early votes traditionally favour National, the trend is already looking fairly decisive.
"It's looking like the polls are correct," he said.
"It's looking like a National government."
