Weatherwatch said a large low pressure system tracking just north of New Zealand would send cloud and rain to the North Island for Queen's Birthday weekend.
But there would be dry spells as well thanks to a changeable set of weather conditions including varying wind directions.
Autumn gave the northern North Island a sunny sendoff yesterday but the wet weather was moving in over the holiday weekend.
Showers were expected in Auckland from around 4pm today.
But the cloud cover would stop the mercury dipping too much, and Friday, Saturday and Sunday's overnight low of 7C is the coldest it would get on the weekend.
The MetService said the South Island and lower North Island will have a drier-than-normal start to June, while the upper North Island will have a very normal start to winter - although perhaps a little colder than normal.
"The breakdown of the prevailing high sitting over the southern South Island is going to be key to the weather we experience in June," MetService meteorologist Georgina Griffiths said. "Especially for those southern regions, which are running rather dry."
A high is expected to linger over the South Island for the next two weeks or so, when sporadic wet weather will hit the North Island.
"Once we hit mid-June, all indications are that we see a major shift in weather regime. Highs are predicted to change location, favouring a position over the Tasman Sea for the back half of the month," Griffiths said.
Thursday's weather
Whangarei: Cloudy, few showers and southwesterlies. 18C
Auckland: Cloudy, afternoon showers. 17C
Tauranga: Fine, evening cloud with a chance of showers at night. 17C
Hamilton: Early fog, then fine but cloudy. Light winds. 16C
Wellington: Cloudy with a few showers, but fine spells in afternoon. 13C
Christchurch: Cloudy, light winds./Chance of showers in morning. 13C
