Heather du Plessis-Allan: Why National's not having a sulk - yet

It's a strange thing watching the National Party's reaction to losing power. You would expect the entire lot to sulk and shuffle about in sad hangovers. But they're not. They show almost no outward signs of losing their jobs. If you turn down the volume next time Bill English is on TV, you'd be forgiven for thinking he's still the Prime Minister, such is his game face.

It's hard to know whether this is just a public act to hide the private wailing and rending of clothes, or whether they truly believe they'll be back in 2020.

Either way, they're giving the impression it's all just a bit of a hassle and they'll be back to the Beehive very soon. But will they?

You can see why they're so confident. With a huge and outwardly unified team, they could give the new Government a lot of gyp for three years. A 44 per cent result on election night means a lot of voters still like them and could be infuriated by the perceived injustice of the biggest party relegated to Opposition. And they're keeping their leaders who, after nine years in power, are more familiar than your neighbours.

Plus, who can tell what's going to happen on the other side.? If house prices slump and the economy slows down as predicted, voters may (probably unfairly) blame the new Government. And goodness only knows how united the Government can be when the leaders of the two chunky support parties didn't even bother to meet for weeks post-election.

But then, a lot can change in three years. By 2020 Jacinda Ardern's team will be just as familiar as those once-powerful faces in National.

And three years is a long time in Opposition. It can tear once-united parties apart. After Helen Clark, Labour had a series of leadership coups and developed a weird fascination with trivial issues such as the so-called man ban.

National usually doesn't end up in quite the same screaming mess Labour manages in Opposition, but it has its own problems all the same. The fact it secured just 21 per cent of the vote in 2002 shows just how confused National can get.

It's often ambition that causes trouble, and there's plenty of that in National. Some of the younger up and coming backbenchers are itching for a promotion. They weren't given much under John Key or English, and Jonathan Coleman's challenge for the party leadership after Key's resignation in December was a backbench shot over the leadership bow.

Also, if English does pull off a comeback in three years his return will be big enough to justify blasting Eminem's Guess Who's Back through the Beehive speakers.

It has been a long time since a party leader occupied the Government benches, lost them, then came back for a second go. The last one was Keith Holyoake, who spent three months as Prime Minister, lost in 1957, then returned in 1960. He survived for another 12 years, so the pay off is pretty good.

So there you go. It's not impossible but it relies on a lot to go wrong for the new Government, and a lot to go right for English.

I wouldn't bet too much on National's return in three years.

More likely, the usual electoral forces will drag us back down to Earth. We'll discover how similar this Government is to the last, it'll become the faces most familiar to us and National will finally have a cry in public.