By now, any good political strategist will have nutted out the issues they should be worried about in the upcoming year.
Obviously, this isn't an exact science. Covid's arrival reminded us it's not possible to predict everything. At the start of 2020, who could have foretold that a pandemicwould shut global borders, end Donald Trump's dream of a second term and re-elect Labour to an historic majority in Parliament?
But not every year is as dramatic as the last. And sometimes, the trends you see at the start of the year are exactly what end up dominating.
So with the disclaimer that this is not an exhaustive list and that any number of unexpected events could make a mockery of these predictions, these are four things Labour needs to keep an eye on in the next 11 months.
Vaccine delivery
This week, the Prime Minister dubbed 2021 The Year of the Vaccine. She's got that right. Getting the entire population vaccinated by year's end is Labour's single biggest task.
Let's hope it's more successful than The Year of Delivery, which turned out to be completely devoid of any delivery.
"Getting the entire population vaccinated by year's end is Labour's single biggest task." Photo / AP
Already, there is reason to be ever so slightly concerned at the way The Year of the Vaccine has started.
We've gone from being "at the front of the queue" for the vaccine (Megan Woods in December) to being told "New Zealanders have to wait their turn" (Chris Hipkins this week).
That's a major shift in the Government's position in just a month and it's not without consequence. Until the country is vaccinated - and possibly even thereafter - we're not going anywhere. Our borders will be closed. The longer that goes on, the more pressure there is on globally connected Kiwi businesses who say they can only go so long without meeting clients face-to-face offshore.
The Government's argument that we should let countries experiencing outbreaks go first doesn't stand up to scrutiny. Singapore is vaccinating and hasn't had a death since November. Bhutan, the Seychelles and the Maldives are receiving vaccines despite only recording three deaths between them this year.
The shift in the Government's position deserves more questions than it's getting from media.
Hipkins obviously realises this is a problem. He's scrambling to get vaccine doses to protect border workers. For now, Kiwis might be unconcerned about the vaccine but if too many countries get vaccinated and get going while we still wait with closed borders, patience could run out.
Housing
The fact that the first prime ministerial announcement of the year was about housing says Labour is worried. It realises this is a risk area. It is, after all, the party that promised to make houses more affordable and yet under Labour houses have skyrocketed in value.
Re-announcing 8000 social houses for a second time will not cut it. Nor will extending the bright line test, if Labour decides to break that promise. Nor will writing indignant letters to the Reserve Bank. None of that will actually slow the rate of increase.
Announcing pretend fixes will fool some, but persistent house price rises will annoy more.
The Māori caucus is outsized and demanding and so could be tough for the 9th Floor to manage. Some of those MPs will be feeling threatened by the Māori Party's bold political moves and fear losing their seats.
The demands they might make may not always sit comfortably with Ardern's strategy, which appears to be doing nothing bold and appealing to soft National voters.
I'd expect that, as long as the Māori Party keeps up its noise, Labour's Māori caucus will be a headache for the PM. It's a credit to her deft political management that she's managed to keep that caucus quiet thus far.
Trevor Mallard
National pretends to hate Mallard, but I bet it loves him. He gives it an easy target. National knows it can't attack Ardern. She's too popular. So it aims for the weakest links around her.
Last term that was Phil Twyford and Clare Curran (among others). This term, Mallard has got to be one of National's targets. He's easy to rile and - given his history of public controversies from beer bottles to expensive taxpayer-funded playgrounds to defamation cases - the opposition knows he gets headlines.
He should've been moved aside by now to save Labour a headache, but since he hasn't, expect a fair bit of Mallard news this year.
