The $11 billion fiscal hole in Labour's numbers was a dead cat. National's campaign boss Steven Joyce was the dead cat tosser. To understand why Joyce did it, you have to remember what was happening at the time: Jacindamania. The craze was relentless. Nothing was stopping it. Nothing else was getting air time.
But the fiscal hole dead cat stopped Jacindamania in its tracks. If you look at the polls, Labour's upward trajectory paused as soon as the dead cat landed.
The unsung hero of the right
Throwing the dead cat makes Joyce the unsung hero of the right.
There was really no fiscal hole. Which of course meant the strategy would eventually backfire. First it stopped Jacindamania, then it backfired all over Joyce.
It hurt Joyce. He was accused of panicking and fluffing National's campaign. He became National's mean guy. He suffered the embarrassment of someone publicly sharing his university transcripts showing he didn't pass eight university economics papers.
But, did you notice who wasn't hurt by this? Bill English.
English rode above it all because Joyce did the dirty work. Joyce took one for the team.
The unsung hero of the left
No one even talks about Metiria Turei anymore. But, without her, we wouldn't have a refreshed and energised Labour Party.
After Turei's admission of benefit fraud, the Greens shot up in popularity.
The Greens hit 15 per cent, Labour fell to 24 per cent.
Within days of Turei's speech, Labour started panicking. A few more days later, they ditched Andrew Little for Jacinda Ardern. And the rest is history.
Turei's actions cost her her job and hurt her own party, but they helped her left bloc immensely and gave us our next Labour Prime Minister.
The biggest loser
There was another reason Labour changed leader: Winston Peters.
It's been reported that in the days before the leadership switch, an internal poll put Labour at 20 per cent and New Zealand First at 19 per cent.
For a while, things looked like they were going Peters' way this election. His vote always goes up when immigration is high and, boy, is immigration high this year. So, Peters revved up his campaign bus and hit the regions weeks before any of the other leaders. He quit the durries and got himself ready for the result of his life.
He even toyed with the idea -- again -- of insisting that his coalition partner let him job-share the Prime Ministership with him. But, then he got pincered. Jacindamania stole his support from the left, National hunted his voters from the right. Prime Minister Winston Peters? He'll have to settle for less.