Heather du Plessis-Allan: Coalition negotiations drag, Christopher Luxon’s debut vision slips

OPINION

This is not the way Chris Luxon imagined his debut coalition talks would go.

He wanted the talks to be quick. He said so on election night.

Yesterday was day 35 since the election. These talks are now the second longest since MMP.

The only negotiation that dragged on longer was the 1996 circus when Winston went fishing. Even Jacinda Ardern did a faster job, wrapping her negotiations with Winston in 2017 in 26 days.

Luxon wanted to go to Apec. Early on, he obviously thought he could. He had to cancel.

He wanted the talks to be “confidential and private”. He didn’t want them conducted “through the media” like they have been in the past.

National leader Christopher Luxon and deputy leader Nicola Willis arrive at the Cordis hotel in Auckland for further talks on forming the next Government. Photo / Dean Purcell

The opposite happened. The leaks were frequent and detailed. The media knew more about Luxon’s talks than they knew about Ardern’s at any point in her 2017 talks.

It was leaked to media that Winston left Wellington last Friday in a huff over a low-ball offer from the Nats. It was leaked that there was a disagreement over the Nats’ tax package. It was leaked that Winston opposed the foreign buyers tax. It was leaked that Winston wanted the climate money. And it was leaked that Winston and Seymour had joined forces to muscle up against the Nats.

Luxon gave off a vibe of confidence like he was going to school the politicians on how successful private businessmen do deals. The politicians schooled him instead.

He seems to have underestimated them. David Seymour might be an acquired-taste nerd and Winston Peters might have a well-deserved reputation for making trouble, but they are both among the smartest operators in Parliament.

NZ First leader Winston Peters, National's Christopher Luxon and Act's David Seymour in coalition negotiations. Photo / Winston Peters

Luxon’s done one term in Parliament, Seymour three and Winston 12. The difference shows.

Luxon can relax to an extent. This baptism of fire will be forgotten shortly. Because the details are forgettable. Apart from a few strategic leaks, the talks have been quite boring actually. No one went fishing. The most exciting moment was a private tantrum before a plane was boarded. Reportedly.

This drama will be eclipsed by the detail of the actual deal and then they will be eclipsed by the pace of changes in the incoming Government’s first 100 days, the public service cuts and the pre-Christmas mini-Budget.

It’s definitely not ideal to disappoint voters within a month of an election, but probably the thing that will linger longest will be a niggling sense that Luxon might not be quite what he hypes himself to be. Or that the other two can best him.

Still, Luxon might want to do what all successful private business leaders do in times of trouble and take some key learnings.

The first would be never to underestimate his fellow leaders. Right now, they’re better at politics than he is, simply because of time spent in the job.

The second would be never to set expectations that others can undermine to their own advantage. Saying he wanted to go to Apec gave the others a deadline to deliberately miss to make him sweat. Saying he didn’t want leaks was an invitation to leak.

The third would be to hope like hell that what’s happened in the past month isn’t a portent of what’s to come.