KEY POINTS:
ROUND THREE
For the third time in three weeks, the Labour and National leaders effectively square off against one another. The struggle for leadership pre-eminence shifts to Parliament following the pair's contrasting approaches to Waitangi Day last week and their "speech-off" the previous week.
THE OCCASION
The Prime Minister's formal statement to Parliament outlining the Government's legislative and policy priorities over the next 12 months.
THE TIMING
Some time after 2pm, once the House has paid tribute to Sir Edmund Hillary.
THE FORMAT
Helen Clark will read her written speech largely word for word. She can speak for as long as she likes, but will probably take between 30 to 35 minutes to deliver the statement. She will be followed by John Key and other party leaders, who each have 20 minutes maximum to debate Clark's effort.
THE TACTICS
Clark has long considered that as Prime Minister she is at a disadvantage when delivering her annual statement. Under Parliament's rules, copies of her speech must be given to other party leaders before 10am - four hours prior to its delivery - thereby denying the Prime Minister an element of surprise. Furthermore, the format means she cannot stray too far from the written text or commit large chunks to attacking National. In contrast, Key has open slather. Labour is consequently trying to hose down the notion that the afternoon debate is a popularity contest. However, election-year realities demand Clark's speech has some fresh elements policy-wise, both to deflect Key's attack and to show Labour is building a solid re-election platform based on visionary and substantial policies. However, don't expect any great detail today. And don't expect any fresh policy from Key. He will seek to capitalise on the limitations imposed on Clark with a spirited, free-ranging critique.
THE PRESSURE
The heat is on Clark more than Key. National's leader was acknowledged to have come out on top when the pair went head-to-head with major speeches two weeks ago. Opinion is divided on whether Key also fared better at Waitangi. He took a calculated risk in going to the lower marae and being photographed greeting Tuhoe activist Tame Iti with a hongi. It sees to have paid off. National appeared inclusive, Key looked prime ministerial. Clark stuck to her risk-free routine, shunning the lower marae where she was subjected to jostling and abuse in 2004. That left a vacuum which Key filled. However, with National and Maoridom currently flirting happily with one another, Clark, as incumbent prime minister, might have got a more hostile reception had she ventured back to the lower marae which would have drawn unfavourable comparison with Key's positive reception. Moreover, no way could the Prime Minister be seen fraternising with someone facing firearms charges.
THE SUPPORTING CAST
Winston Peters will be one leader to watch. It is Key's bad luck that he is followed by the NZ First leader in the speaking order. Peters usually pulls out the stops for this debate. His normal practice this term is to cudgel National and its leader as a means of bolstering Labour. He probably will do so again. This being election year, however, Peters needs to start putting some distance between his party and Labour. Ditto for the leader of Labour's other support partner, United Future's Peter Dunne.
THE EXTRAS
Chalk and cheese. Following Peters' vaudeville - he plays his parliamentary audience with all the skill and timing of the best stand-up comedians on such occasions - Greens' co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons will bring the House back down to earth with a thud. "Sustainability" is likely to be an underlying theme of Clark's speech, and Fitzsimons will be running her party's (stricter) environmental ruler across it to see if it measures up to Green specifications. As the leaders of the two major parties lock horns again, however, the Greens, the Maori Party, United, Act and Jim Anderton, the sole Progressive MP, have a struggle to be heard.
THE JUDGMENT
Despite the Clark camp's efforts to dismiss any suggestion of a contest, both sides will be spinning madly that their leader has won. Clark cannot afford anything less than a draw. Key has more latitude, but his colleagues will be disappointed with anything less than rousing speech which lands some decent hits on the Government benches and gives National the psychological upper hand at the start of this year's new parliamentary session.
