KEY POINTS:
Political correspondent John Armstrong considers the performance of high-profile Labour ministers against their National rivals.
Leaders: Helen Clark v John Key
No quarter is asked or given. Clark has acidly dismissed Key as the least substantial National Party leader she has faced. Jim Bolger, Jenny Shipley and Bill English had their different strengths, but Key is more the talented all-rounder. He may still have to develop some of his predecessors' leadership qualities, but he has no obvious weaknesses. That is why Labour has found it extremely difficult to attack him, instead deluding itself that he is enjoying an extended honeymoon. Not since David Lange has anyone made the thankless job of Leader of the Opposition look so deceptively easy. What he has yet to display is some real passion for becoming Prime Minister. The biggest threat Key poses to Clark's grip on power is his push of National centrewards to make the party an acceptable choice for female voters and middle to high-income liberals. He has yet to get the better of Clark in Parliament, but he has forced her to lift her game a notch. The presidential nature of election campaigns means much will hinge on their respective performances in the leaders' debates. In the meantime, Clark's battle is to convince those voters tiring of her that they are better off with someone with a proven track record, rather than someone who is untested.
Verdict: Still too close to call.
Finance: Michael Cullen v Bill English
A relationship best termed as septic, although English insists he harbours no animosity towards Cullen. The constant taunts from Cullen are as much about driving a wedge between English and Key - at least in the public's mind - as they are about belittling English. The latter has refused to be diverted from his main goal: sheeting home responsibility for high interest rates to rampant Government spending that is further stoking an overheating economy. English's argument has been slow to gain traction with the public, while Cullen is able to hit back by noting National's promise of equally stimulatory tax cuts. The pair will try to bludgeon each other into submission right up until election day. However, for the first time since Labour won office in 1999, economic management is becoming a major issue. Cullen may be hit by a triple whammy: soaring interest rates, the high dollar and then the possibility of a recession in election year, thereby shifting the advantage to English.
Verdict: No clear winner - yet.
Health: Pete Hodgson v Tony Ryall
Hodgson remains an enigma. A wise, savvy big-picture political strategist, he is inexplicably prone to not seeing the political wood for the trees in his own portfolios. His high visibility - compared with that of his predecessor Annette King - is a worrying sign that more things are going wrong in health. Sometimes slow to douse political bushfires, he is not prone to panic when panic might not be a bad idea. He is unlucky to be up against Tony Ryall, one of National's most versatile and hardworking performers. However, Hodgson understands that when it comes to votes, it is waiting lists that matter. Windfalls in tax revenue have enabled Labour to keep pouring huge sums into the public health system year on year. That should insulate Hodgson from major damage.
Verdict: Thumbs down for Hodgson. Thumbs up for Ryall.
Education: Steve Maharey v Katherine Rich
The education portfolio seems to weigh heavily on Maharey. He has sorted out the NCEA - for the time being. But he has to take responsibility for the debacle over Labour's promise of 20 free hours of early childhood education. Rich has had him very much on the defensive. However, she tends to have periods of high visibility only to go off the political radar screen.
Verdict: Thumbs down for Maharey.
Climate Change: David Parker v Nick Smith
The tortoise and the hare? Parker has done the easy stuff - requiring oil companies to develop biofuels, prodding Government departments towards carbon neutrality and removing gas guzzlers from the VIP vehicle fleet. While intellectually sharp, diligent and methodical, he is an unlikely salesman of the Prime Minister's aspirational goal of carbon neutrality. Much hinges on him coming up with a credible and workable greenhouse gas emissions trading regime. It is slow going. National has jumped ahead in leaps and bounds, having already flagged less ambitious, but more easily achievable, targets for cutting emissions. Key and Smith have punted that voters will go for realism ahead of idealism, especially when they remind people that Labour has been going backwards when it comes to actually cutting emissions.
Verdict: Thumbs up for Smith.
State Services: Annette King v Gerry Brownlee
Despite the current stoush over public service neutrality, King and Brownlee have so far had only minor skirmishes. However, King is coming up for air after six years submerged in the health portfolio and is revealing just what an asset she is for Labour. Tough, decisive and uncompromisingly political, King has been one of the few Labour ministers to turn the tables on National in Parliament. Brownlee remains one of National's better debaters in Parliament and has a large say in planning National's political strategy, but has been less visible since losing the deputy leadership.
Verdict: Thumbs up for King.
