Luxon's decision on Monday to inject himself into the public debate about the occupation at Parliament was panned by senior Press Gallery journalists as cynical and opportunist.
Just a week before, Luxon had roundly criticised the protesters and formed a united front with the Prime Minister in refusing to legitimise their cause by meeting with them and negotiating with them.
But only a few days later, Luxon's "Divided Society" speech clumsily tried to argue that while he didn't support those protesting at Parliament, their anger was just part of a wider frustration with the way things are going with New Zealand's Covid response – a frustration that only he could resolve.
In making this argument, Luxon was drawing a rhetorical link between the protesters and the rest of the community.
The problem was that in doing so, Luxon found himself legitimising the protesters' cause on the same day they flung faeces at the police, and a day before one of their number tried to hit police with his car.
Secondly, Luxon's argument itself was out of step with public opinion. An Ipsos poll released the day before his speech showed that only 12 per cent of New Zealanders are angry at the current Covid-19 restrictions, with 75 per cent of voters thinking the restrictions are about right or could be tighter.
Thirdly, by changing his posture towards the protests so quickly, Luxon made himself look small and partisan, cosying up to the loudest voices in the room in an attempt to score points on the Government. One cartoonist lampooned him as diving down a rabbit hole because he saw votes at the bottom.
The effect of all of this was to leave Luxon looking out of touch with where most New Zealanders are on these issues, awkwardly rhetorically aligned with badly behaved protesters, and under fire from journalists for his opportunism.
As to why Luxon abruptly changed his strategy, commentators have suggested he was worried about being left out of the biggest political story of the week or perhaps it was that he was rattled by the torrent of negative comment he has been receiving on his social media from supporters of the protesters and overestimated their support among the wider public.
This kind of overreach probably speaks to Luxon's relative inexperience. The lessons for him for the future are simple: resist the temptation to make every issue an attack on the Government, stick to your core messages around the economy and inflation, and ignore anyone telling you to deviate from your long-term strategy because of short-term pressures.
This week's blunder is unlikely to impact Luxon's poll ratings in the short term– most voters' attention is still on the Omicron outbreak and the economy - and he can right the ship easily by getting back on message and back on strategy. We are all likely to be doing it tough over the coming weeks and months as Omicron bites, and that should be fertile ground for any opposition.
But for those voters still getting the measure of the man and how he makes decisions under pressure, the fact Luxon's instincts were so off base, and he fumbled the ball so needlessly, will be tucked away in their memories for later.
● Hayden Munro was the campaign manager for Labour's successful 2020 election win. He now works in corporate PR for Wellington-based firm Capital Communications and Government Relations.
