Other emerging Labour hopes, like failed Auckland Central candidate Jacinda Ardern, who scraped in on the list, face a tough three years as a resurgent Green and a feisty New Zealand First jostle for attention on the opposition benches. It's a situation that has political commentators shaking their heads.
Party leadership contender David Shearer admits the list selection process needs to be looked at. Otago University politics lecturer Bryce Edwards is astonished rising stars like Nash and fellow one-term list MPs Kelvin Davis and Carmel Sepuloni will not be back this term. None won their electorate battles, although Davis and Sepuloni pushed Mana's Hone Harawira and National's Paula Bennett close in Te Tai Tokerau and Waitakere. Davis announced his retirement from politics on Monday.
The trio's list rankings - 27, 23 and 24 respectively - were too far down the list, Edwards says. "Labour put those people there because they had an overconfidence in the party vote. "They didn't expect their party vote would go down [from 34 per cent in 2008]. That's an assumption they shouldn't have made. They can't regenerate if they're ditching their talent in preference for the non- dynamic people they have protected like [18th on the list] Darien Fenton," he says. "I just think that Labour has not only had a disaster in terms of its 27 per cent result, it has utterly failed in the past 10 years to bring that new blood in. The real problem is not just the leader, but the whole front bench. Labour is in a terrible position."
Nash is cryptic when asked if he is upset about his list ranking. "I wish I was back in Parliament, which infers that I was [ranked too far down]." Shearer says Nash and Davis, a Maori educationalist "and by God, the country needs a few of those", are big losses. Nash certainly deserved a lower place on the list, but when it was done the party was polling around 34 per cent, which would have returned him to Parliament, Shearer says. The list selection process needs another look, he says. "We need to make sure it is giving us the people the party needs." Asked if some longer term MPs should stand aside to allow new blood into the party, Shearer says people generally realise being an MP is not a job for life. He refused to speculate on who he thought should step aside. "All members play a valuable role."
Fellow leadership hopeful David Cunliffe says party president Moira Coatsworth will sponsor a constitutional review, something he backs. "Among issues people want to explore is whether there is a better way to put together our list."
New faces are needed in the caucus or the party will be in opposition for a long time, but retirement is up to individuals, Cunliffe says. A source close to the party says some members are unhappy with how the list is done. "The way they drafted the list was awful," he says. Nash and Davis were ranked too high, as was Kate Sutton, at number 35, who he describes as being one of the "people who should be the new face of Labour" and Josie Pagani, at 38, who has "balls" and energy.
List candidate and Goff campaign manager Michael Wood, who at 32 on the list also missed out, is another one to watch, the source says. "They have to find spaces for these people. They have to ease people out of the party. They need to pick people solely on their ability." Fenton, Ruth Dyson, Rajen Prasad and Trevor Mallard all need to go, he says.
The Herald on Sunday contacted Coatsworth, Goff and former leader Mike Moore for comment, but all declined. Left-wing commentator, and former Labour Party member Matt McCarten also favours a clean out.
The "Helen Clark-era crowd" has to go to give the party a clean start, McCarten says. He rates Nash and Davis, as well as returning MPs Ardern and Phil Twyford: "I'm glad Twyford got in. He'll be a major for the future, he'll be one of the leaders."
He also has a lot of respect for new Manurewa MP Louisa Wall. "She'll make it to the top." Shane Jones also has plenty to offer, but must be less ambivalent about his future, McCarten says. "He could've won [Tamaki Makarau from Maori Party co-leader Pita Sharples] ... he wasn't hungry enough." Labour needs people who really want to be there, he says. "Look at Hone [Harawira]. He's authentic, love him or hate him. And Winston [Peters]. These guys are hungry, they're not waiting around for someone to give them a job. Labour needs more people like that - the Labour movement was built by people like that."
Party insiders told him the loss was the result of a communication problem, but media gave all the parties a good run, McCarten says. "[Labour insiders] were saying, Our policies were good' - that wasn't the point. People didn't feel it." List ranking is done by the party, with ability and the public not given much thought, McCarten says. "People get in there because they tick all the right boxes, they think about demographics like gender, regions, ethnicity, which faction people belong to in the party. Labour's got to stop that s**t because people see through it."
Those with rough edges, like former MP John Tamahere or re-elected West Coast Tasman MP Damien O'Connor, were sidelined when they should be nurtured. "They're gold because they're real, but I think there's been a lot of behave yourself' culture in the party so no one would say to Phil [Goff], You need to f*** off'," says McCarten. "How can you call yourself a leader if you just wait round for the party to get embarrassed?"
Edwards agrees the party has to get back to its roots. Mallard's best days are over, but he would be a good caretaker leader, he says: "The party could use his mongrel, street-fighting sense to bring the party back to something that isn't totally media-managed and scripted. At present it reeks of being a party of middle-income people and careerists."
The leadership battle between the two Davids - Shearer and Cunliffe - is the "battle of the bores". The party needs an exciting leader whom the public sees as authentic, Edwards says. He rates Wellington Central MP Grant Robertson highly. Robertson was coy about his role in the leadership race when called by the Herald on Sunday on Friday. Says Edwards: "It wouldn't surprise me to see him as [opposition] leader and Prime Minister one day. He has huge nous, huge ability. He's still early in his parliamentary career, but he knows this leadership is potentially a poisoned chalice this term."
McCarten says the leadership selection should be delayed until next year and follow an American-style primary so the public gets to know the contenders. The party is in for a real fight for recognition with the left side of the political spectrum turning into a "fruit salad" of options.
"If Labour are thinking National are their competitor this term they've got another think coming. They're sitting beside it." Any leader in that situation has to be ready to fight, but most of those coming up through the party system are not up to it. "They don't have the scars like the working-class people who suffer. These people have never been out of work, they've never had a bad paying job. Norman Kirk, David Lange, Mike Moore all struggled."
Labour has other problems too, Edwards says. "Ideologically, what the party stands for is still a bit murky." The various branches within the party, which includes women, university, youth, industrial, Maori and Pacific Island, shows Labour is still obsessed with placating the needs of minorities in a way that does not fit their attempts to win ordinary votes, Edwards says.
"There's still not a strong sense to incorporate working-class people. That's why the Labour Party was set up, to give working people a voice. That's what the Labour Party is missing, its original soul."
The lack of women climbing the ranks of Labour is another issue facing the party. Feminist Sandra Coney says the lack of women is disappointing given that less than a decade ago several leadership positions, including Prime Minister, leader of the opposition, Chief Justice and Governor General, were held by women.
"We seem to have hit a wall. There's not a sense of women feeling they can go for [leadership] or that they will be supported to go for it.'' Fewer women leaders also means other women are not being inspired to aim for top jobs, she says. Nash has a few ideas about what the party needs to do to get back in power, but he isn't saying what for now. "Labour has to think about it and it has to win," he coments. "You can be the most articulate, wonderful policy-driven party, but if you're not in government it means nothing. Winning is everything."
The battle for top job
Leadership hopefuls
David Cunliffe
David Cunliffe insists he has friends in the Labour party, despite being often described as unpopular. He is a former minister of health and immigration and worked as a management consultant before entering parliament in 1999. He was a Fulbright Scholar at Harvard University.
David Shearer
The former UN humanitarian leader in conflict zones like Somalia and Iraq has emerged as a strong contender for the leadership, despite only entering Parliament when he won former Prime Minister Helen Clark's Mt Albert seat in a byelection in 2009. Shearer was named New Zealander of the Year by the New Zealand Herald in 1993 and has also been awarded an MBE.
Possible deputies
Shane Jones
Public embarrassment over his porn-watching habits hasn't been enough to halt Shane Jones' rising star. The former Cabinet minister was well known for his senior roles in the public sector, including as Waitangi Fisheries Commission chairman, before becoming an MP in 2005. Like Cunliffe, Jones studied at Harvard.
Nanaia Mahuta
Nanaia Mahuta is chasing the deputy leader role on a Cunliffe ticket. The former minister of Customs, youth affairs and local government in the Helen Clark government and spokesperson for Maori, social development and energy in opposition says her greatest achievement is being a mother.
Grant Robertson
Former diplomat Grant Robertson is seen by many as having a strong future in the party. From Dunedin, he represented NZ at the UN in New York before he was elected as MP for Wellington Central in 2008.
