KEY POINTS:
Polls showing a strong lead for National should worry Labour because when voters shift support before an election campaign even starts they are less likely to change back, a political expert says.
Massey University political marketing specialist Dr Claire Robinson said that National's gains were not just a honeymoon period for their new leader or a blip.
Dr Robinson said her research showed a correlation between the time a voter made a decision and the way they cast their vote.
She thinks that when people change their minds early it is harder to turn them around -- but that does not mean they can't be shifted during an election campaign.
"They (Labour) do have time around the campaign but they are not going to get a lot of traction between now and then."
Before the last election National was also ahead under then leader Don Brash, who took a tough stance over race relations issues.
"Some time during that three year period, if something happens which jolts people a little bit that's the moment they will take some time to reflect on who they might vote for the next time," Dr Robinson said.
"Last time it was Brash and his Orewa speech. That was that moment, and this time I think it's really Key and the anti-smacking which has really crystalised people's thinking.
"If an event like that doesn't happen then people are most likely to mosey on and not really bother."
Dr Robinson said next year's election campaign would be crucial.
"The actual campaign still does matter so it still can go bottom up for National. If they, by the time of the campaign, make some cock-ups that's the moment people will have a second look.
Dr Robinson says before the last election National was badly hurt by the Exclusive Brethren campaign against Labour and the Greens.
"If something happens, and for National last time it was the Brethren business, then people do change their mind. The campaign is still really important -- primarily as a reinforcing moment."
Surge in polls
National Party leader John Key says he is not letting his or his party's surge in the polls go to his head.
Last night's TV One Colmar Brunton poll put National on 56 per cent support - a huge 25 point lead over Labour - and follows the weekend's Herald Digi-Poll which also gave National a large lead.
At the same time, Mr Key has overtaken Miss Clark as preferred prime minister.
But Mr Key said today there was a long way to go before the next election.
"This race isn't over yet, a lot could happen between now and then," he said.
Miss Clark said the polls were disappointing for Labour but the Government was halfway through a parliamentary term.
"We've had mid-term blues before and this is clearly mid-term blues," she said.
"At some point the National Party has to stop pretending and release policies. Then people will see that what they're actually saying doesn't add up."
There has been a steady trend over the last two months of National overhauling Labour, and both TV One's poll and the Herald-DigiPoll showed that if an election was held now, National would win enough seats to govern on its own without needing any support from other parties.
Mr Key said on Radio New Zealand the polls reflected feedback his party was getting from voters around the country.
People thought it was time for a change, they saw National as more ambitious and the Government's failure to deliver tax cuts was a main problem for Labour, he said.
"But we're not letting this go to our heads. I'm not freaking out, a lot could still happen," he said.
Miss Clark said on NewstalkZB the Government had been dealing with tough issues.
"They all get laid at the Government's door, whether you're directly to blame or not," she said.
"But there isn't an election tomorrow, the Government has to get on with governing."
Miss Clark said Mr Key was still having "a very uncritical honeymoon" and was still to reveal what National was actually going to do.
"What they're saying is 'you can have everything Labour does, and a big tax cut'," she said.
"I'm afraid it doesn't add up. In the last election the argument that really told against them was borrowing for tax cuts."
- NZPA
