Half dozen targets on National's electorate 'hit list'

National is hoping to put right this election what went so horribly wrong for the party last time around. They won just 27 seats in the last election, the lowest return in the party's history.

National's support slumped to 21 per cent in 2002 when voters dumped 12 of the party's MPs.

A poll released this weekend puts National on 39.1 per cent, just 4.3 per cent behind Labour on 43.4 per cent.

Translated into seats, if an election was held today National would have 49 MPs in Parliament and Labour would return 54.

National president Judy Kirk said today the party expected to regain support in some of its traditional electorates this election and was targeting six key seats.

One of the closest races was in Otago where Labour's David Parker defeated Nationals Gavan Herlihy by just 684 votes.

Apart from 1972 to 1975 and 2002 to 2005, Otago has always been National territory.

National aims to take back Otago with Jacqui Dean, a former deputy mayor of Waitaki District Council and a presenter on the children's TV show Playschool in the late 1970s.

"She's been working full-time campaigning for 12 months," Mrs Kirk said.

While 48-year-old Dean would have the support of the farmers, Otago wasn't simply a farming community.

"Otago is a huge electorate which runs from one side of the South Island to the other."

Invercargill was retained by Labour's Mark Peck in 2002 with a 2792 majority, but had been held by National for all but three years between 1946 and 1993.

National saw its chance in Invercargill after Mr Peck announced in July 2004 he was standing down after 12 years.

National's candidate, farmer Eric Roy, is a former party MP.

"He continued working after the seat was lost keeping his profile up," Mrs Kirk said.

Aoraki is held by Agriculture and Trade Negotiations Minister Jim Sutton who retained the seat with a 6453 majority in 2002.

His National rival is Jo Goodhew who has worked for 21 volunteer organisations in Timaru.

"She's already been working for people and they see she can step up and represent them in Wellington."

Hamilton East was the most marginal seat of the 2002 election with Labour MP Diane Yates winning over National's Anthony Steel by just 614 votes.

National's hopeful this year is the party's youngest candidate, 32-year-old David Bennett.

The farmer, who is also a qualified accountant and lawyer, had been campaigning full-time for months, Mrs Kirk said.

"He's very reflective of the community. He's a hard worker, a do-er -- whatever he says he does."

Northcote was won by Labour's deputy speaker Ann Hartley with 40.8 per cent over National's Jeremy Sole with 32.2 per cent in 2002.

National's new candidate is 38-year-old doctor Jonathan Coleman. "He's going to be a star."

A former Auckland Grammar School head prefect, Mr Coleman had worked as a GP in England and for the Australian flying doctor service in Australia and had an MBA.

"He now works as a health consultant for accountancy firm Pricewaterhouse Coopers."

National's Wellington Central candidate Mark Blumsky had a very high profile in the capital.

"He is Wellington," she said.

Mr Blumsky was found early one July morning lying in the stairwell of his city apartment covered in blood.

The former Wellington mayor was adamant the black eye, facial cuts, broken tooth and four-hour memory gap, was the result of an assault.

However, after investigating, police politely said whether he was assaulted, pushed or fell may never be known.

Mrs Kirk said the incident wouldn't affect his political aspirations. "It's a terrible experience for him, but that's behind him."

Labour Party president Mike Williams said today Cabinet minister Marian Hobbs would return as the MP for Wellington Central.

"I don't think National's got any chance at all in Wellington Central after its candidate got assaulted by a staircase."

Labour had taken the seat off ACT and had a large support base in Wellington, including a branch at Victoria University, he said.

There were two key factors in the Wellington Central electorate.

"One is the very high student population which will be attracted by our (interest-free) student debt policy.

"The other is National has repeatedly said there are too many civil servants. Wellington Central has more civil servants per head of population than anybody else.

"So for Wellington Central to vote National would very much like the turkey voting for an early Christmas."

Invercargill was a "reasonably safe" seat, Mr Williams said.

"We've got a very good candidate there with Wayne Harpur and the feedback we're getting is very positive."

MP for Otago David Parker was an up and coming politician, he said. "He's a brilliant commercial lawyer and he's worked really hard."

Mr Parker was in born Roxburgh which was in the middle of the Otago seat. "That whole area is absolutely booming under Labour."

Another area flourishing under Labour was Hamilton, Mr Williams said.

"It's hard to see any good reason why Hamilton East would go back to National."

Sitting MP Diane Yates was well established in the electorate. "She's put out a hell of a good fight."

At No 28 on Labour's list Ms Yates is guaranteed to return to Parliament.

Trade Negotiations Minister Jim Sutton is No 11 on Labour's list but Mr Williams said he would get back into Parliament as the MP for Aoraki.

"I think he's got the numbers and so does he."

Labour had conducted polling in Northcote and believed there was solid support for sitting MP Mrs Hartley.

The former mayor of both North Shore and Birkenhead was well-known in the electorate.

"She has very strong support from a large Korean community that's in Northcote; there's about 10,000 on the roll there.

"This Maori bashing, anti-immigration thing that the centre right practises goes down like a lead balloon there."

Labour believes it could take two marginal seats off National.

One was Piako, which National MP Lindsay Tisch won over Sue Moroney in 2002 by 1621 votes.

"We've got a very good candidate who comes from a well established Waikato family."

The second was East Coast Bays which senior National MP and strategist Murray McCully defeated Labour candidate Hamish McCracken by 1534 votes to win.

"He now lives in Wellington. That's well-known now (journalist) Jane Clifton admitted publicly that that's the situation.

"Murray McCully is almost never seen in the electorate and he could be in with a very nasty surprise there."

- NZPA