Greens wilting in new poll

The Greens are preparing a last-ditch marketing campaign to avert the political oblivion facing them in a new poll.

A new Herald on Sunday-DigiPoll today shows them on 4 per cent - again beneath the critical 5 per cent threshold that would return them to Parliament.

Haemorrhaging their key youth vote to Labour after that party's promise to wipe interest on student loans, Green strategists are desperately planning unconventional "viral" marketing campaigns to win it back.

Green co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons will present a possible Labour-Green government as an alternative to a Labour government "held to ransom by the divisive, erratic, politics of fear of Winston Peters".

Co-leader Rod Donald said: "We are ready for the responsibility of Government."

With only NZ First and the Maori Party on track to return with enough MPs to provide decent coalition partners for Labour or National, the country could be looking at a very different government after September 17.

Ms Fitzsimons and Prime Minister Helen Clark campaigned together on Friday in a bid to show voters they could work together constructively after the acrimony of the 2002 campaign.

But while that may reassure Labour supporters, Green strategists believe their own supporters would prefer to see them attacking Labour - putting them in an invidious bind.

The new DigiPoll shows Labour on 45 per cent, National on 38 per cent, NZ First on 7 per cent, and all the other parties beneath the threshold - almost unchanged since a NZ Herald-DigiPoll two weeks ago.

The poll of 1000 people has a margin of error of +/-3.1 per cent.

A Fairfax-ACNielsen poll yesterday showed National one point behind Labour, and had both NZ First and the Greens hovering just above the threshold.

Ahead of the Green Party campaign launch on Auckland's North Shore this afternoon, Ms Fitzsimons said the party's polling average had dipped below the threshold as supporters opted for Labour in a misguided strategic attempt to prevent a National-led government.

"If this was happening a week before the election I would be concerned. But we've got five weeks to educate them about how MMP actually works."

She said the party was putting together "innovative" viral marketing strategies - using methods like email and text-messaging - to woo back the youth vote and reinforce the universal student allowance and loan write-off policies.

"The Greens are the only ones that can stop Winston's politics of intolerance and divisiveness calling the shots in the next government."

An experienced Australian punter this week wagered A$50,000 with Centrebet on Labour leading the next government, prompting the betting agency to cut its odds.

"He is one of our smartest politics punters with an excellent track record, irrespective of geography," said Centrebet spokesman Mark Worwood. "He must think that Labour is miles ahead to bet now."

But both Labour and National face uncertainty over coalition partners: Labour cannot rely on the Greens' return, and National is fast giving up hope on Act.

It is likely that the smaller parties will improve their polling in the final five weeks but, nonetheless, both Labour and National now must cosy up to NZ First leader Winston Peters and the Maori Party. They may be needed.

Helen Clark said Labour had made a number of policy announcements that had received a good response.

"Your poll results reflect the feedback that Labour's been getting round the electorates in recent weeks," she said through a spokesman.

"However Labour will continue working hard for victory and take nothing for granted."

National leader Don Brash said the results confirmed once again that the election was a two-horse race.

"New Zealanders should be very nervous about Labour's decision to embrace the Greens," he said.

"Ordinary Kiwis understand that roading projects will be further delayed and Treaty grievances will be never-ending under any coalition between the Greens and Labour.

"National is committed to fixing those problems, and providing quality education, welfare that works and a tax structure which rewards hard work and allows people to get ahead."

- HERALD ON SUNDAY