Greens jump in polls over GE gamble

By FRANCESCA MOLD, political reporter

The Green Party's gamble on genetic engineering has paid off with a sharp rise in support in a poll which comes as speculation grows that an election date may be announced as early as tomorrow.

A Herald-DigiPoll survey shows support for the Greens has jumped 2.4 per cent to 7.7, up from 5.3 per cent in a similar poll in March.

The survey of 800 voters was carried out in the two weeks after the Greens threatened to withdraw their support from the Government if it lifted a moratorium on the release of genetically modified organisms in October next year.

Their ultimatum was considered politically risky but Greens co-leader Rod Donald said yesterday that the poll confirmed the party's "principled decision" had paid off.

The good news for the Greens comes as political commentators point to the possibility of an announcement this week of an early election.

It has been suggested that Labour will discuss the issue, including possible dates, at its caucus meeting tomorrow.

Prime Minister Helen Clark refused to comment yesterday on speculation of an election announcement.

But she denied reports that the lingering police investigation into the fake artwork scandal was delaying a decision on an election date, saying it was not a factor.

The Herald-DigiPoll survey asked voters if they thought the Government should call an early election. About 39 per cent thought they should but 49 per cent said no.

The results show that public opposition to an early polling date has softened slightly. A survey last month recorded 58 per cent against the idea.

Labour MPs going into talks about bringing the election forward will be reassured by the Herald-DigiPoll finding that support for the party remains around 50 per cent. The party took a dip from 51.4 in the March poll to 49.9 per cent this time.

But its main opponent, National, also lost ground slightly, with a drop of just over 2 per cent to 31.2. The gap between the parties remains fairly stable at around 18 points.

The Greens were the only minor party to breach the 5 per cent threshold. Act scored 4.7 per cent, up slightly from the March poll, and NZ First climbed 0.6 to 2.5 per cent support. A Jim Anderton-led party scored 0.7 per cent, the Alliance 0.4 per cent and United Future 0.1 per cent.

Translating the figures into seats in the House, Labour would have more than enough to govern alone, with 65 of the 120 MPs. It would also have support from Mr Anderton, who is expected to retain Wigram.

National would have 40 seats and the Greens 10. NZ First would take three list MPs into Parliament on the coat-tails of leader Winston Peters if he wins the Tauranga seat. And there is a chance of a 121-seat Parliament if United Future's Peter Dunne retains the Ohariu-Belmont electorate.

The figures exclude other parties registering under 5 per cent.

Helen Clark said yesterday that she was pleased Labour's support had remained consistent. She downplayed the rise in support for the Greens, putting it down to more publicity about their anti-GM stand.

"When you think that was their great play and that's the most they can get out of it, I wouldn't be sweating."

But Mr Donald said the poll showed a 50 per cent rise in support for the Greens, which was significant.

He hoped the poll would force Labour to reflect on its determination that any coalition agreement would have to allow for the release of GM products into the environment.

Mr Donald said a UMR Insight poll, published in the National Business Review on Friday, had recorded a similar rise in support for the Greens, to 7.2 per cent.

He said polls showing a consistently large gap between Labour and National meant the real issue at election time would not be who won. It would be whether Labour would have the power to "inflict its policies unadulterated on the electorate".

Mr Donald said the Greens would work to strengthen Labour's spine on issues such as genetic modification, free trade, foreign investment and "staying in George Bush's pocket".

Preferred Prime Minister

The survey found support for Helen Clark as preferred Prime Minister remained high at 49 per cent, although it was about half a per cent down from last time. National leader Bill English drew 0.1 per cent less support at 11.6 and Winston Peters was third at 4.2 per cent.

Former National leader Jenny Shipley scored 3 per cent, Act leader Richard Prebble 1.4 and Mr Anderton 1.2 per cent. Greens co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons made it onto the list with 0.5 per cent support.