Grand Slam no predictor of Cup success

WHAT DOES the latest All Blacks Grand Slam in the British Isles mean to their chances of breaking their long World Cup drought next year.
Diddly squat in my view.
Yes, it was nice to recover from the shock loss to the Wallabies in Hong Kong with wins over Scotland, England, Ireland and Wales but to even hint that the Webb Ellis Cup is heading to NZRU HQ after those successes would be misguided loyalty.
For starters, there were times against the English, Irish and Welsh when the ABs were made to look rather ordinary.
To their credit, they soaked up the pressure and came out on top but you had to wonder what the final scores might have been had World Cup points been at stake.
In all three of those games, the opposition played into the hands of the ABs by running the ball from practically anywhere. Often mistakes were made behind the advantage line and, with loosies the calibre of Richie McCaw and Kieran Read quick to pounce, the ABs regained possession and got into scoring positions.
Come the World Cup, you can bet that teams opposing the ABs will be more intent on playing the territory game which means regularly putting boot to ball.
England, in particular, have forwards with the height, weight and physical presence to cause any side big problems if they adopt tactics which sees the ball seldom move past the five-eighths. They have already won a World Cup by implementing that type of game plan and it's hard to imagine them not doing so again in 2011.
Wales too have a pack rugged enough to be a real threat if they play more conservatively than they did last weekend and while Ireland is, well, Ireland, and will always be unpredictable, they too have forwards with the fire in their bellies to be match winners.
The Wallabies are, of course, a different kettle of fish. The inadequacies of their scrum have been exposed often in the past few months and it's difficult to see how coach Robbie Deans is going to solve the problems in that important department. His intent in World Cup year will be to have his side applying tactics which gives their impressive backs every opportunity to impose their marvellous attacking skills, so for the Aussies, the less set piece play, the better.
Not so South Africa, though. The defending champions have had a mixed 2010, with the lack of imagination and initiative in their backs a constant worry for them but nobody understands better than the Boks that flashy rugby seldom wins World Cups.They will be looking to the brute strength of their massive forwards and the boots of their big-kicking five-eighths to get them back on track.
France and Argentina shouldn't be underrated either. The French caused nightmares for the ABs four years ago when their lead-up form was about as patchy as it will be going into next year, while the Pumas are so efficient in the tighter recesses of the forward game that they seldom attain less ball than their opposition. On the days they use that possession well, they can beat just about anyone.
If all that doesn't convince you the ABs are no certainty for World Cup honours in 2011, then how about envisaging them taking the field without McCaw in the No 7 jersey and Dan Carter in the No 10. It just doesn't bear thinking about, does it?
Obviously, there wouldn't be a team anywhere who wouldn't be affected by the absence of players of their calibre but the huge concern for the ABs is that their understudies are no more than adequate by international standards ... and that's being kind.
In a 15-man game like rugby, you would never think that the availability of just two players could mean so much to any team's prospects, especially at the very top level. In the case of the ABs, it does so big time.