The prison population is forecast to rise between now and 2010, prompting the Government to give an assurance today that it will not reduce sentences for serious offenders.
However, Justice Minister Mark Burton said non-custodial sentences "may be more productive" and the projected growth in the muster was part of the reason they were being considered.
Mr Burton released the latest Prison Population Forecast, which predicts the muster will rise from an estimated 7399 in June this year to 8685 in June 2010.
He said the tougher sentencing options enacted in 2002 were reflected in the new figures.
"The Government is committed to keeping New Zealand families safe and secure," Mr Burton said.
"There will not be any lessening in penalties for serious repeat offenders and hardened criminals.
"For those people from whom the public must be protected there is no other option than imprisonment."
National's law and order spokesman, Simon Power, accused him of wanting to "throw open the prison gates" in a bid to solve the overcrowding problem.
New Zealand has the second highest imprisonment rate in the western world, behind the United States. The figures in the population forecast are averages. The muster changes from day to day, and the last confirmed figure was 7524 on February 13 this year.
Corrections Minister Damien O'Connor walked into a storm of opposition protest last month when he suggested considering "more creative ways" to reduce the prison population and cited experiences in other countries.
After returning from a fact-finding trip to Britain, the Netherlands and Finland, he talked about systems which allowed inmates to go home for one weekend a month, and be paid for work carried out during sentences.
Mr Burton said the latest forecast was higher than previously predicted.
"It shows that the growth in prison numbers experienced over the past decade looks set to continue over the next five-year period," he said.
"The tougher sentencing options this government has put in place through the 2002 Sentencing and Parole Acts are in part reflected in the prison population figures. Four new prisons will become operational by 2007."
- NZPA
Government talks tough despite rising prison numbers
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