Glimmer of light in brain drain statistics

Leave New Zealand to see the world? Stay overseas because you have a better job? KATHERINE HOBY examines the trends.

Megan Pacey was desperate to see the sea after just a few weeks in land-locked London.

She and a friend - also a Kiwi - jumped in a car and headed for the coast on their first free day.

As a New Zealander in her 20s living in London, Megan Pacey would like to return home.

She loves the Kiwi lifestyle but says career opportunities in Britain are simply too good to miss out on.

She has a job she loves, working as a policy officer for the Daycare Trust, a national voluntary organisation which lobbies the Government on childcare issues.

She is just one of an estimated 500,000 New Zealand citizens who live overseas permanently or long term. About 400,000 of them live in Australia.

Some call it the brain-drain. It seems everyone is talking about it. Politicians, academics, bureaucrats and young Kiwis on their way out of the country or living overseas have all been having their say.

Numerous newspaper headlines and radio and television news items have focused on NZ losing our hottest young talent overseas. For good. This is not simply the good old Kiwi OE (overseas experience).

Some would have you believe it is hopeless, "last one out of the country turn out the lights" territory.

But what are the numbers? Who is going, and where? And do we need to hit the panic button yet?

Megan Pacey says she faces the question almost daily of whether to return home. It comes down to a choice between having a good job and other prospects in London, and coming home possibly to join the dole queue.

"I am a very proud New Zealander living in Britain at the moment, but it's a strong drug to feel wanted in the job market."

But, she adds, the number of New Zealanders gravitating to London does not seem to have increased in the two years she has been there, though the average amount of time they are staying away has lengthened.

In the year ended July 1996, New Zealand gained 9294 in permanent or long-term arrivals over departures. To the end of this July, 9592 more left our shores than arrived.

Andrea Webber and Marcus Jacobson have just returned to New Zealand from two years in Britain. But only for a few moments.

They would love to settle here but barely touched down before leaving for work in Sydney. Marcus Jacobson has a job lined up in the computer industry with a far better salary than he would get here.

Andrea Webber says New Zealand just does not offer the same job opportunities as Britain and Australia.

The couple will consider coming home in four or five years if what they call a "bad-news vibe" in New Zealand has changed.

Statistics New Zealand figures show that in the year to August we had an overall net loss of 10,030 permanent and long-term migrants.

In the year to August 1999, however, the net loss was 11,120, so there has been some improvement.

To August 2000 there was a net outflow to Australia of 26,030, but net gains from China (4410), South Africa (2160), India (1970), Japan (1820) and Fiji (1420).

The largest group leaving between July 1996 and July 2000 listed their occupation as "professional," which includes teachers, accountants, doctors and nurses (of whom 7384 left this year). It was balanced somewhat by the number arriving (6451), to leave a net loss of 933 for this year.

In 1996, New Zealand gained 5452 professionals, in 1997 3461 and in 1998 1078. Last year, it had a net loss of 901.

Young New Zealanders have always packed a suitcase and headed overseas. But the fact that they are staying away longer is what is having such a dramatic impact on figures. And when they decide to settle, many are opting for Australia.

In the five years to January 2000, net outflows to Australia took in all occupation groups.

The largest loss was of sales and service workers (4530), followed by trades workers (4280), professionals (3860), technicians (3840) and managers, administrators and legislators (3070).

In contrast, there were net gains in most occupations from Asia and for all occupation groups from South Africa.

However, taking the statistics at face value and screaming with alarm about the brain-drain may be a little premature.

Ian Pool is a professor of demography at Waikato University. He says the statistics have some "nasty fishhooks." They include people going on OE, which may be more about travel and pub work than waving goodbye to Aotearoa forever.

He also notes that there is a difference between the certainty with which those leaving and those returning can reply to questions.

Those leaving may be asked how long they intend to be away. It seems "intend" is the key word here.

If the reply is, for example, two years, who is to say that circumstances will not change and that that traveller will return in two months, two weeks or even two days?

If someone returning is asked how long he or she has been away, however, the answer is invariably a more concrete one.

"It is the difference between I think and I know," Professor Pool says.

Despite his cautionary words about statistics, he has his own concerns about the brain-drain, particularly in the scientific workforce.

He cites a lack of research posts being offered with long-term tenure.

A senior researcher may be offered a one-year tenure in New Zealand and have a project that will take five years or more. Professor Pool says any researcher will prefer an overseas post that guarantees long-term support to a home base that has no security beyond the first year.

He says student loans and the demise of the apprenticeship scheme are having a negative impact.

"We are at the end of the employment food chain, but we have stacked the odds against ourselves with things like student loans."

The United States, with a voracious job market, has a history of taking workers from other countries.

Immigration Minister Lianne Dalziel claims there is no such thing as the brain-drain.

"But it's hard to argue against something that is so catchy and rhymes," she says.

Young people wanting to travel is simply an international phenomenon and the labour market is a global market.

She says that since people are getting married later and women are waiting longer to have babies, it makes sense that they should stay away longer to experience the world before they settle.

Dr Boyd Swinburn, former medical director of the Heart Foundation and associate professor of community health at Auckland University Medical School, is leaving New Zealand next year to take up a research position in Melbourne. Dr Swinburn has been a tireless campaigner for healthy eating and quit-smoking campaigns.

He says health and medical research are hugely underfunded. New Zealand's investment per capita for such work is about one-sixth of that of the OECD average.

Researchers who want to work on any project in a more than trivial fashion - and that is pretty much every serious researcher in the country - need serious dollars - hard to find in New Zealand.

Dr Swinburn says New Zealand-related research cannot be carried out solely overseas. Projects based here are imperative "to lead the way out of some of our own individual problems."

Universities are under such financial pressure that their priority is offering a high volume of low-cost undergraduate courses, and therefore senior researchers often miss out.

New Zealand will always be relatively handicapped by size and should not expect to be able to compete in all fields, Dr Swinburn says.

"We can't plan to be champions of everything and we shouldn't."

Information and people are more mobile than ever, he says.

He, like many people, has had to make a tough decision about leaving his homeland. It was a matter of sums in the end.

All occupation categories listed by Statistics NZ have suffered a slide in long-term migration figures in the past five years.

Legislators, administrators and managers have dropped from a gain of 906 in the year ended July 1996 to a loss of 1356 this year.

Technicians and associated professionals have recorded a steady drop from a gain of 831 in 1996 to a loss of 1775. Clerks declined from a gain of 704 five years ago to a loss of 530.

Service and sales workers were already in negative territory in 1996 with a loss of 298, but dropped further to record a loss of 1804.

Agriculture and fishery workers recorded a small decline from a loss of 191 in 1996 to a loss of 299 this year. Trades workers went from a large gain of 2301 to a net loss of 1345. Plant and machine operators dropped from a loss of 132 in 1996 to a further loss of 956. Elementary occupations had a drop from a net loss of 279 to a further loss of 594.

It should be noted that a large number of those leaving either did not specify an occupation, it was not applicable (for example, children), or the occupation listed was illegible or unidentifiable.

Meanwhile, back in London, Megan Pacey says she finds New Zealand very isolated and "I'm in the heart of everything here."

She will return home in December for a holiday and has arranged to meet several Government representatives to discuss the possibilities of finding a job here that is similar to her work in London. Megan Pacey says she is certain she will return to New Zealand one day.

But in the meantime she chooses money, a good job and economic stability over lifestyle, the ocean and the weather.

"After all, you can't live on sunshine forever."

Herald Online feature: The jobs challenge

Participate in our Herald Online forum