KEY POINTS:
The prize Dick Hubbard and John Banks are fighting for in the race to be Mayor of Auckland City has proved elusive. Both men are after a second chance. If Hubbard loses this election in two weeks time, he will join Banks and his predecessor, Christine Fletcher, who were voted out after three years in the job. If Banks wins, he will be the first mayor to make a comeback since Sir Dove Myer Robinson in 1968.
Each is offering a different style, a different take on similar policies and a different vision.
Whoever wins could be the last mayor of the country's largest city as the role now exists. A Government-appointed Royal Commission of Inquiry into Auckland is expected to lead to a shake-up of the region's seven councils and regional council in time for the 2010 local body elections.
There's a good chance Auckland City will become a glorified community board under a single, supercity or beefed-up regional council. In that case, the city will lose its clout as the region's powerhouse and the mayoral chain will lose some of its lustre.
A Herald-DigiPoll survey seven days ago suggests Banks is a shoo-in to wrestle back the mayoral title he lost to Hubbard three years ago by a whopping 19,000-plus votes. Not only did the poll give Banks a comfortable 8.5 point lead; it showed him stretching his lead of 5.8 points from the previous poll on July 30.
The latest poll killed off hope any other candidate had of coming through the middle, with Alex Swney running a bad third on 7.2 per cent, to Banks on 43.7 per cent and Hubbard on 35.2 per cent.
Swney called it a wake-up call: "New Zealand would never go back to Muldoon. Why would Auckland go back to Banks?"
That question is occupying the minds of many Aucklanders. Why go back to a divisive and aggressive former parliamentarian who preached "roads, roads, roads", had 17 people arrested at one council meeting and sold airport shares and pensioner housing to hold down rates?
But if you believe Banks, he has undergone a "transmogrification". The Oxford Dictionary definition of that is to "transform in a surprising or magical manner". Surprising? Yes. Magical? We'll have to wait and see.
The 60-year-old former National Party cabinet minister with nearly 30 years of bruising politics under his belt, not to mention a cruel talkback tongue, is promising a softer, gentler style and new policies.
You will not hear boastful rhetoric about winning, or see Banks driving a Ferrari or Bentley. Instead, he is portraying a modest image and promising a boost to public transport. He has even been spotted using the Link bus service.
In an unfamiliar soft voice, Banks makes no excuses for the thrashing three years ago.
"I'm not going to sit around for three years under a cold shower and not learn anything. I know what went wrong. I know what needed to change and the only reason people are going to support me this time round is that they perceive there has been a change in policy and in style."
His critics are not convinced. Labour's MP for Mt Roskill, Phil Goff, scoffed at claims Banks has turned over a new leaf.
"I say to that, 'Yeah right'. He hasn't changed. He is 60. He has been that way all his life and he will be like that again."
Hubbard says that after briefly trying to reinvent himself, "Banks chapter two" is back, dripping with sarcasm and being loose with the facts on issues like Queen St and sewage spills on to beaches.
After saying in 2004 that name-calling tactics had no place in local body politics, Hubbard last weekend accused Banks of being a "silver-tongued, split-tongue, snake-oil salesman".
Banks isn't alone on the credibility front. Problems abound for Hubbard. He still comes across as slightly awkward and has never looked confidently in control. Worse still, he has devalued his most valuable asset, a strong public mandate.
Hubbard can lay much of the blame for initial goodwill deserting him on his deputy, Bruce Hucker, whose skirmishes are well-documented and led to the perception of Hubbard becoming a lame duck mayor. He has not been helped by having to work so closely with the left-leaning City Vision bloc and by cock-ups from senior council staff on various central city upgrades.
The political learner has also been his own worst enemy at times and a refusal to listen to wiser political heads has not helped. Dying in a ditch over water rates when a parliamentary inquiry has accused you of misleading ratepayers and all your opponents are running for cover is not smart politics and bleeds votes.
The Hubbard years have been marked by two steps forward followed by 1 1/2 steps back. It is this erratic performance that Banks has pounced on as his chance to win back the mayoralty, preferably with a right-leaning Citizens & Ratepayers-dominated council.
Banks is offering consistent and decisive leadership, affordable progress, openness and accountability. He is railing against massive rates rises, water price gouging, secret meetings, out-of-control spending and huge debt.
Behind the slogans, there is less substance.
Promising to be more upfront about the scale and cost of the leaky building crisis - forecast to cost ratepayers between $200 million and $360 million over 12 years - will be welcomed. But the only new policy that the Herald could identify with Banks is promoting the rationalisation of water into one regional entity.
On rates, Banks is promising lower rates than "my opponent"(he never refers to Hubbard by name), on water he agrees with C&R and City Vision to abolish the policy of using Metrowater as a "cash cow" for other council spending, and his transport policy would fit comfortably inside the City Vision manifesto.
What's more, Banks - like C&R - is refusing to say what projects in the council's 10-year plan he would cut to bring down rates. Unlike the old days, councils cannot just cancel budgeted projects or reduce service levels without outlining the changes to communities.
C&R leader David Hay, who was deputy mayor under Banks and could be calling the shots again, says it's one thing to find efficiency gains and make spending cuts on consultants but the knife will have to go deeper to keep rates down "and it won't be easy".
It's on social and environmental policy and philosophy where voters have the starkest choice between Banks and Hubbard.
Despite the uncaring image, Banks is not a Luddite on social policy. He worries about social dislocation within communities and will do his best to improve safety and security alongside the police.
He shows genuine compassion for the homeless. Community centres and libraries are "core business" in his book.
But he draws the line at housing. Banks says this is the responsibility of the Government, even though he was a member of the National Government that sold state houses and then flogged the council's stock of pensioner houses when he became mayor.
On the environment, Banks is into practical steps, like reducing waste. He is highly critical of Hubbard for going overseas and preaching sustainability and bringing together knowledgeable people on the subject with no idea how to fund the outcomes.
Hubbard strongly believes that social infrastructure is as important as physical infrastructure and rejects scorn from Banks about making Auckland City a Peace City. Under his term, previously neglected areas like Otahuhu have received a new community centre and new swimming pools are planned for Otahuhu and Avondale.
Hubbard says there were issues with City Vision's social blueprint which he would not have gone into bat for on his own, like affordable housing.
But after speaking with businesspeople and others he was happy to sign up to a $9 million initiative to help low-to-middle income earners into 100 new homes over five years.
The other big issue for Hubbard is sustainability and climate change policies where he is absolutely convinced Auckland has yet to step up to the plate. A Mayoral Taskforce on Sustainability has come up with a blueprint. He is promising to reduce waste in council buildings by 20 per cent and energy consumption by 15 per cent by 2010, and make the city carbon neutral by 2020. Bylaws will be reviewed by 2010 to remove impediments to sustainable practices.
Sadly for him, there are no practical solutions at this stage to offer voters beyond plans to give households a 240-litre wheelie bin to recycle paper, cardboard, tin and aluminium cans, glass bottles and plastic containers. And even this policy is a natural progression from previous waste reduction measures.
This might suggest a mayor trying to do too much too soon. Instead of consolidating his mandate, Hubbard has thrown much of it away. Households are hurting from average rate increases of 32.7 per cent and a 19.6 per rise in water rates. Certainly a large increase in household property values has contributed.
But unlike the Auckland Regional Council, which learned from the 2003 rates revolt and kept rate increases to 4.9 per cent over each year of this term, Hubbard's council has gambled on big property and water rate rises, with more in the pipeline.
Nobody disputes the need to fix Auckland's crumbling infrastructure, handle growth and turn Auckland into a lifestyle city, but these messages have become lost among stories of cost blowouts and sloppy governance.
There is also a hint of desperation to Hubbard's campaign now that he is trailing in the polls.
An open letter to the people of Auckland in community newspapers this week says it's crunch time and urges voters to "stop the return of John Banks" to the mayoralty.
"This contest is a battle of leadership styles. My personal style is to provide steady leadership - the steady hand on the helm.
"I'm not into histrionics, grand promises, grandiloquence, overly simplistic solutions ... I want a tolerant and compassionate city," says Hubbard.
THE JOHN BANKS YEARS
Caption1:
Used Little River Band song, Help Is On Its Way, on the hustings in 2001.
Promised to build the eastern highway by 2007.
Hired PR consultant and road lobbyist Tony Garnier at a cost of $215,251 in 15 months.
Held overall rates to level of inflation. Other factors saw household rates rise 15.6 per cent.
Ratepayers paid $8000 on garaging for Banks' Bentley.
Opposed Britomart, then led a $10,000 procession down Queen St in a horse-drawn cart to open it.
Had 17 people arrested at one council meeting.
Had $80m Vector Arena built.
Sold "non-core" pensioner housing to the Government for $83 million.
Resanded Kohimarama Beach for $6 million.
Spent $750,000 unsuccessfully seeking resource consent for the V8 car race.
Paid $46 million for Westhaven Marina.
Approved chicken coop apartment blocks in central Auckland.
Signed deal on above ground Britomart heritage redevelopment.
Promised to fight crime and combat graffiti, but didn't attend a single law and order committee meeting in 30 months.
Sold half the airport shares for $190 million.
Introduced business class air travel for mayor, councillors.
Agreed with an interviewer's description of him as "overbearing, pedantic, arrogant, rude and pushy".
THE JOHN BANKS YEARS
Caption1:
Used Little River Band song, Help Is On Its Way, on the hustings in 2001.
Promised to build the eastern highway by 2007.
Hired PR consultant and road lobbyist Tony Garnier at a cost of $215,251 in 15 months.
Held overall rates to level of inflation. Other factors saw household rates rise 15.6 per cent.
Ratepayers paid $8000 on garaging for Banks' Bentley.
Opposed Britomart, then led a $10,000 procession down Queen St in a horse-drawn cart to open it.
Had 17 people arrested at one council meeting.
Had $80m Vector Arena built.
Sold "non-core" pensioner housing to the Government for $83 million.
Resanded Kohimarama Beach for $6 million.
Spent $750,000 unsuccessfully seeking resource consent for the V8 car race.
Paid $46 million for Westhaven Marina.
Approved chicken coop apartment blocks in central Auckland.
Signed deal on above ground Britomart heritage redevelopment.
Promised to fight crime and combat graffiti, but didn't attend a single law and order committee meeting in 30 months.
Sold half the airport shares for $190 million.
Introduced business class air travel for mayor, councillors.
Agreed with an interviewer's description of him as "overbearing, pedantic, arrogant, rude and pushy".
The Dick Hubbard Years
* Allowed Bruce Hucker to stand in front of him for his victory photograph in the Herald.
* Promised to hang the Maori saying, Te Tangata, Te Tangata, Te Tangata (It is people, it is people), at the entrance to City Hall.
* Mounted coup against errant deputy that failed when Action Hobson councillors backed Hucker.
* Signed letter opposing civil union law. Later apologised to gays.
* Raised overall rates by 21.4 per cent and 32.7 per cent for households.
* Banned chicken-coop apartments and hired urban design champion.
* Riled fashionistas over Vulcan Lane upgrade and prominent Dames over suffragette memorial in Khartoum Place.
* Queen St massacre of exotic trees. Queen St cost blowout. Queen St disruption.
* In favour of Eden Park upgrade one minute, waterfront stadium the next.
* Backed large park on Tank Farm headland after public uproar over apartments.
* Said water bill rises would be "small", then raised them 19.6pc in two years.
* Record spending on overseas trips, including $85,000 jaunt by two councillors and staff.
* Resanded St Heliers beach and fixed stormwater for $10m.
* Made $1500 grant to Congolese community to make calls home for elections.
* Replaced mayoral gas-guzzler with hybrid electric car.
* Mayoral Taskforce on Sustainable Development.
* Backed down on bid to ban central-city billboards.
The John Banks Years
* Used Little River Band song, Help Is On Its Way, on the hustings in 2001.
* Promised to build the eastern highway by 2007.
* Hired PR consultant and road lobbyist Tony Garnier at a cost of $215,251 in 15 months.
* Held overall rates to level of inflation. Other factors saw household rates rise 15.6 per cent.
* Ratepayers paid $8000 on garaging for Banks' Bentley.
* Opposed Britomart, then led a $10,000 procession down Queen St in a horse-drawn cart to open it.
* Had 17 people arrested at one council meeting.
* Had $80m Vector Arena built.
* Sold "non-core" pensioner housing to the Government for $83 million.
* Resanded Kohimarama Beach for $6 million.
* Spent $750,000 unsuccessfully seeking resource consent for the V8 car race.
* Paid $46 million for Westhaven Marina.
* Approved chicken coop apartment blocks in central Auckland.
* Signed deal on above ground Britomart heritage redevelopment.
* Promised to fight crime and combat graffiti, but didn't attend a single law and order committee meeting in 30 months.
* Sold half the airport shares for $190 million.
* Introduced business class air travel for mayor, councillors.
* Agreed with an interviewer's description of him as "overbearing, pedantic, arrogant, rude and pushy".
