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Good news for those yearning for the summer holidays - better weather than average is predicted from now until January, with only a 10 to 20 per cent chance of cooler conditions.
The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) says New Zealanders who have just endured the third-windiest October in nearly two decades can look forward to "at least" average temperatures until January.
The latest seasonal climate outlook forecasts a 50 per cent chance of above-average temperatures for everywhere except the Far North and Deep South - with a 40 per cent chance temperatures will be normal.
Niwa principal scientist Jim Salinger said La Nina conditions were well established in the central and eastern Pacific, meaning normal or above-normal rainfall was expected in the north of the country and normal or below-normal rainfall in much of the south.
Niwa was also expecting more anticyclones over southern New Zealand and these were likely to bring more settled weather over the South Island.
The prevailing westerly winds, which could be strong during the late spring, were likely to be weaker and less frequent than normal for the three months as a whole, with easterly winds at times.
Meanwhile, October was the third-windiest month in New Zealand in 18 years.
MetService spokesman Bob McDavitt said 41 severe wind warnings were issued.
"The winds of October were notable in their persistence, with several severe wind events affecting Southland, Wellington and southern Hawke's Bay in quick succession, especially from the 14th to the 25th."
The windiest month was October 2006 with 57 warnings issued. The second was November 2006 with 45 warnings. Public wind warnings began in 1989.
- Additional reporting by NZPA
