Gentle pressure on Fiji our best weapon

By JOHN ARMSTRONG Political editor

Speak softly and carry a big stick. So said Theodore Roosevelt of the subtleties of American foreign policy.

At first glance, the reverse might be applied to Phil Goff. Our Foreign Minister has fired off sound-bites all week full of indignation about how power in Fiji cannot be allowed to flow from the barrel of a gun.

In doing so, Mr Goff is catering to domestic politics at home, ensuring the Government does not look weak in the way National did at times during the tenure of his more laid-back predecessor, Don McKinnon.

However, in substance, if not style, there is little difference between the two. With no big stick to wave - military intervention is a non-starter - Mr Goff, too, is favouring Mr McKinnon's behind-the-scenes diplomacy.

Mr Goff has been careful to vent his anger largely at George Speight and his cohorts holed up at Suva's Parliament House.

What Fiji has been suffering from is a power vacuum flowing from a gun. And New Zealand's diplomacy has been focused on encouraging Ratu Sir Kamisese Mara and Major-General Sitiveni Rabuka to fill this vacuum, rather than criticising them.

To help them to find solutions to the hostage crisis, New Zealand quickly made it clear it was not demanding the reinstatement of the abrasive Mahendra Chaudhry, although preservation of the 1997 constitution is a bottom line.

That concession was coupled with warnings of sanctions if Fiji authorities gave in to Speight's demands.

To reinforce that message, Mr Goff cleverly herded the Commonwealth and United Nations together by enabling Mr McKinnon to hop on board the Suva-bound aircraft of the UN special emissary, Sergio de Mello. The pair were heard, if not heeded.

Working closely with Australia, Mr Goff has now upped the ante by canvassing so-called "smart" sanctions. These include barring Speight and associates from getting travel visas, suspending defence ties and banning Fiji soldiers from peacekeeping missions, plus sport sanctions - all designed to punish the ethnic Fijian Establishment.

Cutting aid would punish only poor Fijians. Trade bans are notoriously ineffective. Cutting diplomatic links would be equally symbolic - and equally pointless.

The trouble is that Ratu Mara, General Rabuka and the Fiji Army have been transfixed by the devil they have created in their midst, seemingly oblivious to all this diplomacy. But no one has any better ideas.

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