Front line approaches Kiwis

Isis forces are closing in on Taji. Photo / AP

New Zealand's 100-plus contingent of military training specialists plus support personnel have barely arrived in Iraq. Yet the folly of this military (mis)adventure is already rapidly becoming apparent.

Last week's fall of the city of Ramadi after Iraqi forces capitulated to Islamic State fighters, despite heavily outnumbering their enemy, has shifted the front-line in this sectarian struggle worryingly close to Taji, the huge military camp within which the New Zealanders are based alongside Australian counterparts.

Unless the Isis (Islamic State) advance is halted, the New Zealand Government is going to be faced with a major dilemma at some point in the not-too-distant future: pull the training team out of Iraq and lose face, plus earn black marks from the Americans and the Australians; or stick it out for the sake of good form and loyalty to allies and gamble on things not deteriorating with the risks this brings, including the possibility of casualties.

National's predicament was neatly summed up by New Zealand First MP and former Army officer Ron Mark in an entry on his Facebook page last Friday.

"Latest update from the US on Isis. Taji is only 91km from Ramadi. The same distance I drive from Carterton to Wellington to attend Parliament. Isis could be in artillery range of our troops in 30 minutes." He added a question for Mr Key: "What's our plan, John?"

Even more chilling were the remarks made by no lesser figure than the American Secretary of Defence Ashton Carter. He said the Ramadi rout showed the Iraqi forces lacked the will to fight against Isis.

He went on to say that the American-led coalition of countries contributing military and other assistance to the fight against Islamic State could "participate" in defeating Isis. But the coalition could not sustain victory. Only the Iraqis could do that. That cuts straight to the stated rationale for the New Zealand deployment.

The Prime Minister has heavily stressed the moral compunction to tackle evil. The Zealand Defence Force has extolled its "long and proud tradition" of providing training for foreign military forces dating back to the Malay insurgency in the 1950s.

But those qualities cannot defeat what first needs to be defeated before you can defeat Islamic State - the endemic corruption and sectarian strife which riddles the Iraqi armed forces. How will New Zealand's modest contribution succeed where the Americans failed, despite spending billions on training Iraqi troops?

Until that happens those troops will owe loyalty to no one. Instead of loyalty, the prime emotion felt by recruits will be fear - the fear that the colleagues fighting beside you might cut and and run, leaving you to the mercy of a cult that shows none.

The uncharitable might wonder whether the razor wire and concrete blocks which encircle Camp Taji are not there so much just to keep Isis outside as to ensure Iraqi army recruits stay inside and do not desert.

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