Fran O'Sullivan: When the earth shakes you better be ready

It's important to have supplies on hand in case of an emergency. Photo / Agnes Ginestet

I have to admit it's been pretty good having my big strapping son home in Wellington this week as our beloved villa rocked and rattled in the latest swarm of earthquakes to hit the capital.

I slept through Tuesday night's quake. But there was no mistaking the steady rocking and the sudden lurch which woke me at 2.19am yesterday.

Since being caught in the February 22 Christchurch earthquake, I've been reasonably stoic. Terrified at the time. But no personal damage apart from cut feet and a bit of delayed shock - you get the drift.

But with son in house I don't have to pretend to have a mortgage on testosterone.

My initial response was to make a cup of tea. Then debate whether to go back to bed and hope the chimney didn't fall on me if a bigger shake happened, or, skip to the living room couch for a bloody uncomfortable but safer sleep while I cursed myself for not insisting the survival kit I bought online after the earlier rattle was not immediately delivered (Sod's law!).

I stayed put. That's the problem with long-time Wellingtonians. We tend to get a bit blase about earthquakes.

Our family has experienced plenty of them in "Wellington house" - the two-storeyed pile we bought more than 30 years ago. "Wellington house" (or simply "Upland Rd" as we sometimes call it) has been an anchor.

When I went to Auckland in late 1992 to edit National Business Review, owning Wellington house was the convenient rationale I used not to deflect myself through hunting for an alternative Auckland property. In Gabriel's case, it remains a place to call home in an eventful career that has taken him to London, Auckland and Canberra and probably on to the US next year.

Sentiment aside, I'm not so sure that the rationale holds up any longer.

Earlier this week I had planned to write about how well John Key, Bob Parker, Gerry Brownlee and Phil Goff had performed since the tumultuous Christchurch quake. That can wait. What can't wait is the need for all of us - not just Cantabrians (although they have been suffering mightily) but particularly other New Zealanders who live in quake prone areas to personally prepare.

The Ministry of Civil Defence reckons that only 25 per cent of us have heeded the warnings and prepared for a major earthquake through ensuring a personal survival plan and sufficient emergency rations to cope for three days or more without help.

The plaintive cries from residents of Christchurch's eastern suburbs that they had to wait more than a week before help arrived surely shows that the bureaucrats have been a tad Pollyannish.

In Wellington's case, the ministry's website in a section called "key messaging" points to a regional study in Wellington that "gives the estimated impact as 657 fatalities for a daytime event, with 137 if at night".

Like the "three day survival" plan this estimate now seems seriously on the short side.

After the September 4 quake, the Greater Wellington civil defence emergency group went to Christchurch to make some preliminary observations about the quake and its relevance to a movement on the Wellington fault.

The report makes for sobering reading. More than 700 suspect buildings in the CBD alone (thanks to Peter Dunne's political pressure the Wellington City Council has since released a list of potentially earthquake prone buildings - 808 of them spread across 217 of the capital's streets). Ten of them are in my own road - thankfully well away from my house.

The problem is there are now 30,000 inner city residents and 60,000 commuters coming into Wellington each day. On a normal day there are about 200,000 people in Wellington.

Unlike Christchurch, where Mayor Bob Parker exhorted citizens to stay off the roads into the CBD to keep the "lifelines" clear, the CBD is more likely to be marooned as tunnels and motorway bridges come down.

There could be up to 1500 deaths, according to a 1995 conference Wellington - After the Quake. And predictions medical facilities will run out of supplies by the end of the first day of the event. Ultimately, more than 2.25 million tonnes of debris might have to be cleared from the CBD. So, the horror story goes on.

The Wellington City Council has given owners of vulnerable buildings plenty of time to strengthen them. But unless the moment is seized, apathy will soon set in again. Building owners will squeal about the costs.

But at "Wellington house" it's time to take that damn chimney out. Then maybe become an Aucklander again.