KEY POINTS:
Whether you support spring starting on Sept 1st or Sept 22 (Spring Equinox) you can't deny that spring weather has already started with higher temperatures being recorded and the ground finally starting to dry out.
In fact I know that in parts of Auckland and Waikato cracks have started to form with dry winds recently after such a wet winter - although they've perhaps shrunk a bit after Monday's rain.
But the next two days will be typically spring-like with a big low in the Tasman creating some rough weather along the nation's west coast - and like many of the lows we had over winter, it's located west of central New Zealand.
What does that mean? Well - it means that again the South Island's west coast, usually famous for it's violent thunderstorms and heavy rain, will again be spared the worst. This is because the centre of this system is very calm and what little wind there is will be coming from the south east - so the Southern Alps will act as a blocking feature.
I think the West Coast should be rebranded because - and I haven't looked into the stats here - but it seems that they have had some lovely, sunny, warm weather over the past couple of years.
Anyway the top end of the low is where all the action is. This is where cold meets warm - and this creates some rough shower activity and slams it into the North Island's west coast. The fact that the air pressure is so low (around 990hPa) means those clouds can grow nice and big - then throw in some humidity and daytime heating and suddenly you get some nice big showers.
From Taranaki to Auckland thunderstorms are likely - but they will be isolated. In fact one thing about Spring is that everything moves fast! So the shower bands should blast through quickly.
Actually, between showers it could be quite sunny and warm - especially as Wednesday wears on - another spring feature! At this stage, by the time this blog is published, front 1 should've already rolled through and will be moving out over East Cape. A line of heavy showers should move in around the middle of Wednesday and then another set of showers or rain will move in late Wednesday night or during Thursday morning.
Winds should pick up in the far north and once the low rolls across central New Zealand during Thursday a cooler, stronger, south west change will follow through for most places - and should bring an end to those 'balmy' temperatures in Hawkes Bay and Gisborne.
Do you love lightning? I have to admit, I wish we had more of it in Auckland. Some people absolutely hate it, when I was a kid I hated it. In fact, I could've been traumatised by it during the Edgecumbe Earthquake.
I was living in Te Puke, my father was the principal of a small school called Te Ranga Primary School. That day we had earthquake weather (very still, very quiet - will write about 'earthquake weather' in another blog some day!) but that night the skies opened up (after the ground did earlier on!!) and we had a huge thunderstorm. We were getting aftershocks every few minutes - some were around 5 on the Richter Scale - the power was knocked out and there was this thunder and lightning storm that just would not quit - it felt like the end of the world.
You'd think that would scar a young boy, but no, it fuelled my love for it, oddly enough, also fuelled my love for earthquakes. My Mother and Father told me then (and still do now) to never to wish for them but secretly I did (do!) - not one big enough to destroy peoples homes, but certainly one big enough to knock things over.
Anyway - now that I've proven I'm completely mad, back to weather and Thursday also looks to be showery and windy for many. If you live in the east - places like Bay of Plenty, Gisborne and Hawkes Bay - the weather will be mostly fantastic. A few showers possibly but those winds will be warm and again we may see temps in the lower 20s.
HURRICANE IKE
Finally - in international news - Hurricane Ike is now leaving Cuba and is heading towards the Gulf of Mexico. At the time of writing he'd dropped from an extremely dangerous Category 4 to just Category 1 - and while 1 is still pretty nasty it's no worse than some big storms we see here in New Zealand. But as Ike moves out into the warmer waters of the Gulf of Mexico he is likely to explode into life again - possibly reaching Cat 3 or 4, but he now poses a much lower threat to America.
To see the latest satellite images of Ike (updated hourly) and Ike's projected path - click here.
At one stage it looked as though Ike would hit Miami, then move into the Gulf and turn north west and maybe hit New Orleans (exact same path as Katrina). It's a bit hard to describe in writing but I'll try my best.
There is a very large high pressure system east of Florida, Ike is travelling under this high past Cuba, the high is drifting eastwards out into the Atlantic, Ike is travelling westwards into the Gulf of Mexico.
The faster the high moves east the sooner Ike can head north (the high blocks his tracking) but the high is holding firm and has pushed Ike further south and further west than first thought. The further west he travels, the less of a risk he poses to those regions north of him - that means Florida is now in the clear, so too is Alabama and it's most likely that Louisiana (New Orleans) is too.
Texas is now in the firing line, but if the high pressure north of Ike stands firm, Ike has no choice but to continue on his westward track, clearing Houston too. This now means regions near the Mexico/Texas border are now on high alert.
Quite a major change in forecasts from late last week and another sign as to how hard it is to forecast tropical storms. Forecasters still have quite a long way to go at long range hurricane/cyclone/typhoon predicting.
IN FRIDAY'S WEATHER BLOGWe'll talk about the sunny and dry weekend on the way - will Auckland get its first 100% dry weekend in 3 and a half months!? And what's it looking like for the North and South Island ski fields.
Plus, the latest on Hurricane Ike as he gets closer to landfall in Mexico or America.
Philip Duncan
Pictured above: Blooming daffodils bring a welcome first sign of a change of season along Twin Oak Drive in Auckland's Cornwall Park. Photo / Brett Phibbs
For the latest weather news keep up to date with The Radio Network's new Weather Watch Centre or the NZ Herald weather section.
