Forecasters tracking likely tropical cyclone as long weekend sunshine rolls on

Forecasters are closely watching what looks set to be the first tropical cyclone of the season - but there’s little sign of it making an unwelcome turn in our direction.

MetService forecaster Tuporo Marsters said a tropical depression near the Solomon Islands – currently packing winds of 55km/h at its centre – could have formed into a Category 1 cyclone by Monday morning, at which point it’d be named, likely Lola, by the Fiji Meteorological Service.

Tracks placed the system near Vanuatu on Monday and, while meteorologists here were keeping a sharp eye on it, there was no indication of it travelling down to New Zealand.

“It meanders around the tropics for quite a long time, and there’s no threat to New Zealand at this stage.”

WeatherWatch.co.nz also reported its future track southwards was still unclear, but added that a now-formed El Nino was helping to buffer New Zealand by placing more high pressure between here and Australia, “a bit like an invisible brick wall in the sky”.

“However, highs aren’t always continuous in this zone, so we’ll be monitoring any possible impact to the New Zealand area later this coming week,” the website reported.

“It is possible the leftovers of this tropical low may track into or near New Zealand - but please remember sea temperatures are only just past their very coldest of the year at our latitude, so we are not expecting a tropical storm coming into New Zealand, [and] it will very likely fall apart or weaken significantly.

“At this stage, all modelling shows the storm falling apart as it heads out of the tropics and becoming a fairly weak subtropical low.”

If formed, the cyclone would mark an unusually early start to the season, which typically ran between November and April.

For New Zealand, the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) has picked a lower risk than last year’s calamitous season: of the five previous years it’s used to look at what’s likely unfold this season, just two saw systems travel within 550 kilometres of the country.

Meanwhile, after the mercury reached a summery 22C in Hamilton, Tauranga, Whitianga, Thames and Taumaranui on Sunday, there was plenty more warmth in store for Kiwis enjoying a sunny long weekend.

MetService was forecasting widespread fine conditions over New Zealand on Monday, save for the possibility of isolated morning showers in Northland.

Temperatures could reach around 20C in the north of the country, and while a cooler 15C high was picked for Wellington, conditions would still be sunny.

Unfortunately, the rest of the week’s weather didn’t look quite so pleasant.

“You’re best to enjoy the day off [on] Monday, because on Tuesday, we’ve got a low approaching from the west, and a front associated with it is going to bring rain to west of the North Island – and gale westerlies through the middle of the Cook Strait.”

Throughout Tuesday, showers were due to develop over the North Island – turning to rain about Taranaki, Kāpiti Coast and Wellington in the evening – while rain with heavy falls was forecast for the west and north of the South Island.

More rain was expected throughout the North Island on Wednesday morning, with showers in the west of the South Island, and with Thursday likely to bring more showery weather over most of the country.