KEY POINTS:
It's great timing that Waitangi Day is on a Friday this year - we get a 3 day weekend and so everyone will be looking to the skies to see if mother nature gives us a good one weather-wise. (Pays not to think about the next two years when we don't get a holiday at all...which is insane considering it's out national holiday... but I'll save that energy for a quiet weather day!).
The forecast isn't looking too bad at all. The set up is this: A high pressure system over much of the country getting squeezed at both ends (so to speak). In the north a tropical low will develop, but be well off shore. In the south, a building low in the Southern Ocean will push against this high. At the same time the high will be strengthening - pushing back. We know what that means - a nice big squeeze zone from roughly Wellington southwards. The high should grow nice and strong over the North Island - giving Northland and our most popular holiday spots great weather. Earlier in the week we were unsure as to the exact track of that tropical low but thanks to the prediction of that high growing it's now going to send that low much further east - ensuring a sunnier, drier and calmer weekend for northern NZ.
As that squeeze zone forms over the South Island the ol' Nor'westers will build - so if you're a fan of 30+ temperatures then eastern areas of both islands are likely to be the places to be.
Those winds may be quite gusty around Wellington on Sunday - maybe gale force on the hill tops (Rimutaka Ranges for instance)
In the far south some rain clouds are predicted to affect Southland and maybe Otago. But overall it's looking like a pretty good weekend - especially for celebrations up north in Waitangi itself.
Here are a couple of links you might find useful today and across the weekend:
WeatherWatch's exclusive Travel Forecast - we rate the weekend's weather for driving, flying and crossing cook strait by sea.
Also, our independent Waitangi Weekend Forecast (updated twice a day) for all areas in the country.
We'll update the travel forecast throughout the weekend and the Waitangi forecast up until Friday evening.
Enjoy the long weekend - with sunny, hot, weather for most places it's a good chance to really get out and enjoy a real kiwi summer to celebrate our national holiday!
- Philip Duncan
