Forecast jump in population challenged

Dr McDermott says Auckland may find it more difficult than usual to attract immigrants. Photo / Herald on Sunday

An economic geographer is questioning a new projection that Auckland's regional population will climb close to 2 million in the next two decades.

Dr Phil McDermott of the CityScope consultancy, who wrote the briefing paper on population for last year's Royal Commission on Auckland Governance, said the new Statistics NZ projection was based on optimistic assumptions about continued net immigration.

The projection, published last week, suggests that 60 per cent of New Zealand's total population growth from 2006 to 2031 will be in the Auckland region, lifting Auckland's share of the national population from 33 per cent to 38 per cent.

About a third of the projected increase in Auckland is due to net immigration, with the other two-thirds due to an excess of births over deaths.

Dr McDermott said planners should not assume, as Statistics NZ has, that net immigration would continue at the historical average of 10,000 a year on a national basis after the current recession ends. The net inflow in the year to January was actually the highest for six years at 22,600.

"We are facing difficult labour market conditions in New Zealand and increasing competition for skills from Australia and Southeast Asia. It may be more difficult to attract people in the future than it has been in the past," he said.

"There is also evidence that the movement of people out of Auckland to other parts of New Zealand that has been evident over the past 10 years is becoming entrenched.

"This is driven in part by lifestyle choices among an ageing population. It is a phenomenon seeing more of our migrants moving to secondary cities and smaller towns.

"Housing affordability and employment may also support the trend to move out. It is reflected in housing market and employment statistics, as Auckland seems to have been hit harder by the current downturn."

He said Statistics NZ's own business statistics showed that employment grew by only 20 per cent in Auckland in the nine years to last year, compared with 22 per cent in the rest of the country.

"Auckland doesn't drive New Zealand growth. Agriculture, forestry and tourism do," Dr McDermott said.

However, Auckland University geographer Ward Friesen said Auckland's manufacturing, port and corporate head offices were also a key part of the country's export sector, and he believed the projection of a national net inward migration of 10,000 a year was realistic.

"I think there is such a huge potential pool of immigrants, and New Zealand has this selling point of lifestyle," Dr Friesen said.

Although there was a net domestic movement out of Auckland to other parts of New Zealand between 2001 and 2006, he noted that this was mainly in older age groups. Auckland still had a strong net gain of people aged 15 to 29 moving in from the rest of the country.

Dr Friesen said the only question was whether Auckland's share of the national population gain in the next 20 years would be 60 per cent, as projected, or perhaps 50 per cent.

The region accounted for 70 per cent of national population growth from 1996 to 2001, but this dropped to 51 per cent from 2001 to 2006.

The increase to 60 per cent of net growth in the next 21 years reflects a projection that population will be declining by 2031 in six of the country's 16 regions.