Most occupations will not escape cuts, recent studies show, says Steve Hart
Jobs in manufacturing, retail, hospitality and distribution are among the hardest hit as firms make cutbacks, according to an employment trends survey.
And while skill shortages are still prevalent in some areas, recruitment firm Hudson reports few bright spots when it comes to job growth.
In its Employment Trends Survey report, which sets out to predict what will happen in the job market up until June, people working in healthcare, IT and utility companies are best placed to ride out the recession.
The survey, based on responses from 2285 New Zealand firms, says the IT industry continues to make the largest positive contribution to employer sentiment nationally, with more than a third of the IT firms surveyed saying they intend to increase permanent staff levels during the first half of this year.
However, the report says this figure is 19 per cent lower than during the second half of last year.
The report says firms are being forced by offshore parent companies to move into a holding pattern amid "serious pressure to reduce costs".
It says work is continuing for in-house IT teams, and government technology projects are ongoing, but many projects, upgrades and innovations are on hold, leading to reduced opportunities for IT professionals who are reliant on project work.
On the upside, the report notes plenty of activity in IT sales and marketing as distributors up the ante to get their products off the shelves - perhaps before they become obsolete.
The Hudson report also says employer sentiment in the construction, property and engineering industries will continue to fall because of weak residential construction and a decline in commercial building.
It says employment growth in the construction industry is now reliant on government investment in public infrastructure.
The collapse in the residential housing market has severely hit the financial services industry as fewer people require loans and several major financial institutions are looking to cut costs by outsourcing support services, moving roles offshore or reducing the size of their management teams, it says.
However, Hudson's report says 2.6 per cent of employers the firm's staff spoke with are expecting to increase their permanent staff levels during the first six months of this year.
And among them are healthcare providers - one of a handful of professions where jobs appear to be safest.
According to a report by research and analysis firm Berl, carried out for the Government's Career Services, job growth will be seen this year in health, education, the police, fire service and the Department of Corrections.
Its report says there will be less part-time work and fewer unskilled jobs this year. And employment growth will slow and unemployment will increase until 2011.
One of the report's authors, Dr Ganesh Nana, says inbound and domestic tourism has been "pretty grim" for the past year. "When people close their wallets holidays are one of the first things that go," he says.
On the job front, Dr Ganesh says the Government needs to make the next move. "It all comes down to how we respond to it internally," he says.
"The Government is the main driver in terms of its infrastructure package - it needs to get that rolling quite quickly. If it does we could see a reasonable amount of growth toward the end of this year.
"But if, as I suspect, things continue at this leisurely pace then we might have some growth at the end of the year - but not much to talk about."
The Berl report for the Career Services also says 17,000 people will not enter the labour force at all this year as a direct result of the recession. Younger people will stay on at school or do tertiary study as there will be fewer unskilled jobs available, it says.
And this scenario, says the Institutes of Technology and Polytechnics of New Zealand (ITPs), is already panning out as more people return to full-time education.
"Enrolments at ITPs are up by 5 to 10 per cent on the same time last year, as Kiwis invest in their skills," says Dave Guerin, executive director of ITP New Zealand - the national association for New Zealand's 20 institutes of technology and polytechnics.
Guerin says student numbers are up in nursing, teaching, science and trades. "We expected increased enrolments of over 10,000 people this year, but it looks like we might pass that total in the next month or so."
"Research commissioned by ITP New Zealand from Berl in December identified that there will up to 76,400 more people unemployed or out of the labour force by March 2011, 75 per cent of them with lower skills."
Contact Steve Hart at www.SteveHart.co.nz
