Five contenders for National's top job

Don Brash and Bill English

If special votes don't favour National, Don Brash may not be leader for long.

Brash turned 65 yesterday.  Hitting retirement age as speculation swirls that he may abdicate is an unfortunate omen for the National leader.

After perhaps the most openly brutal coup in party history, when he wrested the leadership from Bill English, Brash could be forgiven for fearing the knives. But having nearly doubled National's party vote, he should be able to name his own leaving date, says Dr Jon Johansson, politics lecturer at Victoria University.

"Brash, in my mind, has complete control over his own environment. I don't believe any so-called pretenders would move against him," says Johansson.

Anyone seeking to roll Brash would struggle getting the numbers in a caucus where 24 of the 49 MPs owe their jobs directly to him.

But, says Johansson, Brash's age could go against him in 2008. Here are five contenders for his job:

JOHN KEY

Star of the campaign. Calm and capable, Key has to be the clear frontrunner to succeed Brash. Described by Richard Prebble as "the candidate from central casting", finance spokesman Key is believed to have abundant support among the party hierarchy. The rags-to-riches millionaire took a dramatic pay cut to enter politics in 2002.

Maybe more popular outside the Parliament than in it, having damaged his reputation with colleagues after his last-minute switch of support from Bill English during Brash's coup.

He is yet to be tested outside his finance portfolio. Selling a $3.9 billion tax cut to a cash-hungry electorate was not the campaign's most challenging task.

Johansson: "Needs to continue what he's been doing. Broader experience will give further depth."

BILL ENGLISH

Just 43, English has more cabinet experience than any other Nat. But for the baggage of having led the party to its worst-ever defeat in 2002, he would rival Key as odds-on favourite.

Since being deposed by Brash he has worked assiduously on attacking the Government. He has impressed as education spokesman and is well-regarded for his command of policy.

Some insiders speculate he could form a tag-team with Simon Power. A comeback would present him with the same problems as last time: attracting financial backers for the party and courting centrist voters without mimicking Labour.

Johansson: "English's intellectual gravitas will see him drive the engine of the next National Government."

GERRY BROWNLEE

After two years as Brash's deputy, he is understood to harbour ambitions for the top spot. Believed to lack the necessary support among his colleagues, though some might back a Brownlee/Judith Collins ticket.

Deputy again despite rumblings of discontent about his performance as shadow leader of the house. The former school teacher has developed a reputation as a bruiser - a tough image to sell to voters.

Johansson: "A higher profile portfolio is the next logical step."

SIMON POWER

A hot pick to assume the leadership mantle in the future, fresh-faced 35-year-old Power may not be ready just yet.

Considered one of the cabal of talented young Nats biding their time before they inherit the party, he could feasibly fill the deputy role for either Key or English.

Stepped down as chief whip this week, sparking speculation he wants freedom to dissent. Could use some time in a fresh portfolio to recover from the "we go where America goes" gaffe that saw him dumped as defence spokesman last year.

Johansson: "Needs to show his colleagues he can deliver on his promise."

KATHERINE RICH

The ideal deputy leader? Bright, hard-working and super-competent, talented Rich is an outside contender for the top job.

May lack the necessary support in the male-dominated caucus, although the election's influx of female talent could now boost her prospects.

Promoted quickly to No 4 on the party list, she was demoted from her shadow welfare portfolio by Brash for not publicly backing his hardline stance on DPB beneficiaries.

She fought this election at number 10 and must be due for a revival of fortunes.

Johansson: "A real asset in the future in terms of re-connecting with female voters. Requires broader experience."

- HERALD ON SUNDAY