Polytechnics and institutes of technology will find out over the next month if they will be forced to cut courses under moves to rein in tertiary spending.
Some may even have to close as the Government concentrates on "provision, rather than providers".
The Tertiary Education Commission will hold workshops nationwide between now and mid-May in an attempt to cement guidelines on what is, and what is not, acceptable under new rules which end 15 years of funding based on student numbers.
It is likely to be the final nail in the coffin for controversial courses such as twilight golf, Maori singalong lessons and dog-grooming, which have attracted thousands of students and millions of taxpayer dollars.
Tertiary institutes will instead have to prove their courses have regional and national relevance and the potential to produce economic and social benefits such as trades training or health programmes.
Announcing the proposed changes yesterday, Tertiary Education Minister Michael Cullen said Government money could be better spent than on "singalong with Max Bygraves, or whatever it is".
However, it was too early to say whether any institutions would have to shut their doors.
"You cannot be certain of that," he said. "It's an open question at this stage."
The new funding system will be introduced by 2008. A separate system will be developed for universities with a similar target of paying for "quality and relevance" rather than bums-on-seats.
The Government also wants to look at duplication in the sector where the same course is offered at several institutions without a market for graduates.
"Areas of this sort where we are dramatically over-providing - and if the Government is having difficulty funding what it wants to fund in tertiary education - then choices have to be made in that respect," Dr Cullen said. He admitted the Qualifications Authority had not been as effective at monitoring as it could have been because of its work on the new secondary school exam system, and he suggested the Tertiary Education Commission might take that work over.
"One of the issues in my mind is that NZQA has been so deeply focused on NCEA over the last few years ... that I think to some extent the monitoring and quality assurance around the tertiary sector has kind of got pushed aside and devolved in such a way that I don't have the assurance that I need to have."
He also revealed that the Tertiary Advisory Monitoring Unit, which faced criticism over the Wananga o Aotearoa, was being taken out of the Ministry of Education and made part of the commission.
National's education spokesman, Bill English, accused the Government of removing student choice. Norman LaRoque, from the Education Forum, criticised reforms that "appear likely to stifle healthy competition".
But Dr Neil Barns, president of the Institutes of Technology and Polytechnics, said he was cautiously optimistic.
A multi-year funding agreement would remove uncertainty about the amount of money coming with fluctuations in enrolments, he said, and clearly defined polytechnic roles set against those of universities was a positive. However, there were still "what does it all mean?" questions to be answered.
Dr Barns said details were needed on whether, for example, a distance-learning business course in Nelson was considered a duplication of a face-to-face course in Manukau.
"We've had a system that's forced people to run a course with the highest demand just to pay their way. I don't think there's many in the sector that would not welcome a clarification of their role and a funding system to support it."
The changes are designed to "ensure quality and relevance" by switching from a funding system determined by student numbers to one driven by outcomes, such as good qualifications and job prospects.
Tertiary reforms - what next?
* No more "bums-on-seats" funding for low-grade courses such as twilight golf, Maori singalong and dog-grooming.
* Money to go to courses with prospects, such as business studies, health programmes and trades training.
* Consultation with polytechnics to nail down firm funding formula between now and mid-May.
* Proposals to Cabinet by June.
Final nail in coffin for suspect tertiary courses
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