The Maori Party's Rahui Katene has a lead over Labour's Rino Tirikatene in a Te Karare Digi-Poll survey released this afternoon, but the pollsters aren't confident it will mean she'll retain her Te Tai Tonga seat.
The last survey of the series in the seven Maori seats gives Mrs Katene 46 per cent support. Mr Tirikatene had 35 per cent, the Green Party's Dora Langsbury 10 per
cent and Mana's Clinton Dearlove 9 per cent.
But in a statement Digi-Poll isn't writing off Mr Tirikatene.
"The Labour candidate is closely behind and enjoys higher support from 40-59 age
group. Rahui Katene seems to have strong support from 18-39 group. These voters do tend to change sides at the last moment and also there is tendency of low voter turnout in this age group. So these two factors can work in favour of [Mr] Tirikatene.''
It has been one of the more anticipated polls because of the perception that Mrs Katene was vulnerable after Maori Party branches in Wellington rebelled against the party's support of the replacement foreshore legislation.