Mangere MP Taito Phillip Field is refusing to rule out leaving Labour if an inquiry into his alleged conflicts of interest leaves him permanently sidelined on the party's backbenches.
If he follows through with his threat and becomes an independent MP, the Government would be forced to seek support from four parties to get much of its legislation through Parliament.
Mr Field said yesterday he was determined to remain the MP for Mangere, but refused to commit to Labour or to rule out becoming an independent.
Labour sources said the MP had also spoken privately of forcing a by-election.
They argued it was an exercise in leverage, rather than a signal of a genuine intent to leave.
In September Prime Minister Helen Clark asked Noel Ingram, QC, to investigate if Mr Field had breached the Cabinet manual by asking a ministerial colleague to grant a work permit to a Thai overstayer who tiled his house in Samoa.
The inquiry was later extended to cover other allegations and was expected to be completed long ago.
Under a cloud, Mr Field was not re-appointed to the associate ministership position he held before the election.
His lawyer has responded to Mr Ingram's draft finding and he's working on the final version.
Mr Field said in March he expected to regain his post if cleared, saying he was convinced he would be.
But Helen Clark has given no public guarantees about his future.
The Independent this week reported that Mr Field had informally canvassed jumping ship to United Future.
Mr Field yesterday flatly rejected having talked to the party, but added: "I haven't determined or decided on, or considered my future."
"I'm the Labour MP for Mangere, I'm carrying out my duties as an MP for Mangere and when this report is out of the way I will continue to be an MP for Mangere."
Asked if he was committed to remaining a Labour MP for Mangere, he said: "Well, I haven't got a crystal ball and we'll cross bridges when we come to it."
Mr Field has a huge majority in the constituency, but winning a by-election against Labour - which he may be considering to clear his name - would be a tall order in the Labour stronghold of South Auckland.
If he shunned a by-election, but left Labour and remained in Parliament as an independent MP, he could make life more difficult for the Government.
It must now turn to at least three parties to get legislation passed.
With the Progressives' Jim Anderton, it can turn to United Future and New Zealand First to get the required 61 vote majority, or alternately to the Greens and the Maori Party.
A defection by Mr Field would reduce those combinations to 60 votes, potentially requiring Labour to get either his support or that of a fourth party. If he went to United Future it would strengthen their bargaining position.
A defection of one Labour MP wouldn't undermine the Government itself as the Greens abstain on confidence and supply.
A spokesman for Helen Clark said she and senior party figures were in regular contact with Mr Field. "He's very much a Labour MP at the moment and we're not pondering about hypotheticals."
United Future leader Peter Dunne has said neither he nor the board had had any talks with Mr Field, but United Future MP Gordon Copeland attends regular parliamentary prayer meetings with Mr Field and yesterday would not confirm or deny whether the pair had discussed the issue.
"If any MP came to talk to us about joining our party, it's something that we would give serious consideration to. So I think that's always a possibility, but I'm not linking that in any way with Taito."
The numbers
* Labour needs 61 votes to pass legislation in Parliament.
* It has 50 seats, plus the guaranteed support of Jim Anderton, making 51.
* To get a majority, it needs 10 votes from either NZ First (7 seats) plus United (3) or from the Greens (6) plus the Maori Party (4).
* Losing Mangere MP Taito Phillip Field could force Labour to find yet another voting partner.
* It would not lose power because the Greens have promised not to vote against Labour on confidence motions.
Field hints at quitting Labour
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