Fiat's chief has been its saviour

A Fiat 500 race. Photo / Supplied

Venice University business school dean Giuseppe Volpato reckons Fiat Group chief executive Sergio Marchionne saved the carmaker from oblivion.

"We should ask ourselves: Where Fiat would be today if it did not encounter Marchionne on its road?" said Volpato, who has written two books on Fiat.

He said that when Marchionne joined Fiat in June 2004 it looked unlikely that the company's automotive division could be saved.

The most viable pre-Marchionne option was to force General Motors to take over Fiat Auto. The United States giant bought 20 per cent of Fiat Auto for US$2.4 billion ($2.98 billion) in March 2000 and was contractually obliged to buy the other 80 per cent.

"If GM had bought Fiat, what would Fiat be today?" Volpato asked. The likely answer, according to Italian automotive commentator Luca Ciferri, is: closed.

Just look at what GM, which had to file for US bankruptcy protection in 2009, has done to underperforming subsidiaries in the past few years, writes Ciferri in Automotive News.

Hummer was closed. Saab was dumped. Opel/Vauxhall was nearly sold. Fiat would have been lucky to survive.

Fiat has many challenges to overcome, but Volpato said that because of Marchionne "it is still alive, kicking - and owns Chrysler."

VW zooming aheadVolkswagen will probably become the world's biggest carmaker this year, vaulting past Toyota and General Motors on gains in emerging markets.

VW Group's sales, third among carmakers last year, will probably rise 13 per cent to 8.1 million vehicles this year, based on the average of three analysts surveyed by news agency Bloomberg.

GM sales will gain about 8 per cent to 7.55 million, while Toyota will drop 9 per cent to 7.27 million, according to the survey. VW sales in China may rise almost 20 per cent this year and more than double in India, it says.

That's a contrast to Toyota, which is suspending plants in Southeast Asia because of floods in Thailand, months after an earthquake crippled production in Japan.

But Toyota may regain the lead from VW next year as the recovery of the Japanese company's facilities from the March earthquake will pave the way for Toyota to sell 8.4 million cars, or half a million units more than VW, according to research.