KEY POINTS:
There's good news for those who forfeited a Christmas break so workmates could shiver through the silly season in tents: February is set to be the warmest month this summer.
Conditions are expected to be more settled later this month, the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) National Climate Centre has predicted in its three-month forecast.
The moderate El Nino event in the tropical Pacific has peaked but is still expected to influence New Zealand's climate until at least February.
In an El Nino year, February is normally the warmest month, the centre said.
However, bathers beware: the sea surface temperatures around New Zealand are likely to remain cooler than usual.
From January until March the weather is expected to be cool but drier than average.
Winds will be generally westerly and southwesterly which typically bring drier conditions in the North Island and north of the South Island.
This means cooler conditions, which may slow crop growth.
The soil moisture and river flows are expected to be normal or above normal in the west of the South Island, and normal in the east.
Drier soils are expected elsewhere, which could reduce production.
In the east of the North Island, air temperatures are expected to be average, while the rest of the country can expect average or below average temperatures.
Rainfall will be normal or below normal for everywhere except the west of the South Island where it will be normal or above normal.
Summer got off to a shaky start, after one of the coldest Decembers in the last 60 years.
Earlier this month Niwa principal scientist Jim Salinger said this was due to southerly winds, leaving temperatures 2 to 3degC below normal nationwide during the first half of December.
The national average temperature for the month was 13.7 degC -- 1.9 degC below normal.
The highest temperature in December was 31.5degC recorded at Blenheim Airport on the 12th.
The lowest air temperature for the month was -2.5 degC recorded at Chateau Ruapehu on December 10.
FACTS:
Regional predictions for the next three months:
- Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty: Below average temperatures are likely, with normal or below normal rainfall. Below normal soil moisture and stream flows are expected.
- Central North Island, Taranaki, Wanganui, Manawatu and Wellington: Average or below average temperatures are likely. Rainfall, soil moisture and stream flows are likely to be normal or below normal.
- Gisborne, Hawke's Bay, Wairarapa: Average temperatures are likely. Rainfall, soil moisture and stream flows are expected to be normal or below normal.
- Nelson, Marlborough, Buller: Average or below average temperatures. Rainfall, soil levels and stream flows normal or below normal.
- West Coast, Alps and Foothills, Inland Otago, Southland: Below average temperatures. Normal or above normal rainfall and stream flows with above normal soil moisture.
- Coastal Canterbury, East Otago: Average or below average temperatures. Normal rainfall, soil moisture and stream flows.
- NZPA
