Tourism operators are worried that New Zealand is no longer seen as one of the world's top destinations, and that Kiwis themselves are heading overseas for their holidays.
Firms in one of the most popular areas for tourists - Northland - have reported fewer visitors this summer.
The high New Zealand dollar, cheap trans-tasman airfares and appealing international packages may all have contributed to falling tourist numbers.
"There is considerable speculation that the romance with New Zealand is over and places like Vietnam and South America have taken our place," said Fullers Bay of Islands acting general manager John Robson.
He said the company's business had been slightly down this summer, in keeping with the trend nationally since late last year.
He said: "To be honest, we could certainly be doing a little bit better. I don't know why things are a little slow and I don't think anyone else really does either, but destinations are cyclic."
Although the numbers have not yet been crunched by the statisticians, several larger operators say they've had slightly lower business levels this summer, Mr Robson said.
However, the Tourism Research Council New Zealand (TRCNZ) and the Ministry of Tourism said last year that they expected international visitor numbers to increase, reaching 3.2 million by 2011.
They forecast a 52 per cent increase in international spending to $9.6 billion over six years, from $6.3 billion in 2004.
Most businesses weathered and emerged relatively unscathed from the November slump, when inbound tourism numbers were down by eight per cent nationally, according to Destination Northland manager Robyn Bolton.
Experts said it was now a case of waiting to see if the downturn is a continuing trend which could indicate the industry is heading into a deeper depression.
"The times they are a-changing. It's a very volatile situation. We have to be ready to change as needed, to look at what's happening and try to find ways around it," Ms Bolton said.
"We have to make ourselves more enticing to the New Zealanders who might be taking up more of the attractive overseas products on offer."
Northland's biggest obvious visitor sector was the short-break Auckland market. But the region's tourism relied equally on the wider domestic market for volume and the international market for higher spending and growth potential, Ms Bolton said.
- NORTHERN ADVOCATE (WHANGAREI), HERALD STAFF
Fears NZ losing its glossy tourist image
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