Experts: Flu outbreak fears are overdone

Photo / APN

Claims that an influenza epidemic of swine flu proportions are set to overwhelm the country are overblown, according to virologists at the National Influenza Centre.

Media reports that a new strain of influenza - H3N2, which causes hallucinations and crippling nausea - is heading north from Canterbury, and that flu admissions are at "epidemic" levels, are out-of-step with the latest surveillance data released yesterday.

A weekly influenza report by ESR (Environmental Science and Research) says the current levels of influenza admissions are at "normal" levels throughout the country.

Dr Sue Huang, a virologist at ESR and director of New Zealand's World Health Organisation National Influenza Centre, moved to play down fears of an epidemic.

"I do not believe this year's influenza activity will reach an 'epidemic as big as swine flu' [as claimed]," she said.

"This is because the current predominant influenza strain is A(H3N2). These viruses do not appear to be anything extraordinary and they have not changed as much as the swine flu did.

"We are tracking within range of a typical flu season. In fact, the speed of the increase of the influenza activity this week is slower than last week."

She said that this week's influenza-like illness consultation rate is just a third of the 2009 pandemic peak.

"I would not call the A(H3N2) virus a new strain yet, since although some minor genetic changes might have occurred, it is still quite similar to the vaccine strain (A/Perth/16/2009) antigenically. This means that the vaccine would still offer significant protection.

"Influenza vaccination is the most effective means of preventing influenza related illness and it is highly recommended."