Trauma surgeon says lifting speed limits will drive up deaths, injuries, traffic

• An expert trauma surgeon fears increasing speed limits will lead to more deaths and injuries.
• Chris Wakeman warned the increase in injuries would further strain the health sector
• It comes as Transport Minister Simeon Brown continues to argue the increases will help the economy.

An expert trauma surgeon believes the Government’s plan to increase speed limits on some roads will drive up deaths, injuries and traffic, claiming it will put “vulnerable lives at risk”.

Transport Minister Simeon Brown plans to reverse Labour’s blanket speed limit reductions on local streets, arterial roads, and state highways.

Chair of the Trauma Surgeon’s Committee Chris Wakeman published an article in today’s New Zealand Medical Journal along with other experts to express their alarm over the risks, arguing it will do more damage than good.

Wakeman said speed was a factor in a third of road deaths last year and 50% of all trauma deaths in men aged 15 to 29 involved speed.

“I mean, it’s simple physics, you learn in high school, the faster you go, the bigger the problem and our roads aren’t fit for high-speed travel.”

Wakeman said the increase in speed limits would have roll-on effects that had not been mediated by the Government. He said the increase in injuries would further strain the health sector and there would be a greater demand for hospital beds, rehabilitation and ACC facilities.

“If you hit a pedestrian at 30km/h there’s a 90% chance they’ll survive that crash. If you hit at 50km/h there’s a 10% chance that they’ll survive.

“The physics are simple and the facts are well established throughout the world by decreasing speed in pedestrian zones.”

He argued New Zealand did not have the appropriate infrastructure to facilitate the limit rises and it would not be responsible to follow through without “major investment”.

Wakeman said increased speed limits in pedestrian zones would make parents fearful of allowing children to walk to and from school or other activities. He said this would lead to a surge in parents driving their children to school, escalating the traffic the Government is trying to prevent.

He also said there would be a rise in air pollution as well as putting “vulnerable lives at risk”.

“We’re in a horrible situation as the economy, but driving quicker doesn’t necessarily lead to improved transit times.

“It doesn’t necessarily mean that the economy is going to improve.”

Speed limit changes were part of National’s coalition agreement with Act and part of the Government’s 100-day plan. National accused Labour of ignoring the economic impacts of lowering speeds, saying its approach to speed limit reductions did not make sense.

Transport Minister Simeon Brown plans to reverse Labour’s blanket speed limit reductions. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Brown told the Herald last week the new way of setting speed limits will mean “economic impacts and the views of road users and local communities are taken into account, alongside safety”.

He said the Government was “committed to keeping young New Zealanders safe as they arrive at or leave school, which is why we are requiring reduced variable speed limits outside schools during pick-up and drop-off times”.

However, he added it made “no sense at all to make a shift worker heading to work at 4am crawl along at 30km/h with a permanent speed limit reduction”.

In a statement yesterday, Brown said Kiwis had rejected Labour’s “blanket and untargeted” approach to reducing speed limits.

High-income countries with low rates of road deaths such as Norway, Sweden and Japan all had default speed limits of 50km/h or more on urban roads, with exceptions for lower speed limits. The coalition Government’s approach aligned to this.

“These countries have strong road safety records, targeting alcohol, drugs, and speeding. Our Government has introduced legislation to rollout roadside drug testing.

“We are setting targets for police to undertake at least 3.3 million alcohol breath tests per year, and we are directing investment towards road policing and enforcement.”

The original rule from 2022, which was later amended, was modelled to deliver a 14% reduction in deaths and serious injuries by 2030. The change did not mean blanket speed limit reductions, but if a road controlling authority (mainly councils) did decide to change limits, they would need to comply with the rule, which would mean the new speed limit would most likely be lower than the existing one.

The regulatory impact statement did look at safety impacts, but it did not model them.

It warned that “increasing speed limits outside schools outside school hours may increase the risk of deaths, serious and minor injuries”. However, it said the number of any additional deaths was uncertain.

Introducing variable speed limits, which meant lower speeds during pick-up and drop-off times, “could result in a reduction in the number of crashes outside school gates”.

Last month, a survey commissioned by NZ Transport Agency Waka Kotahi found Kiwis support lower speed limits around schools and other high-risk areas.

In some cases, that support was particularly strong, with 70% backing lower speed limits around schools to improve road safety.

Rachel Maher is an Auckland-based reporter who covers breaking news. She has worked for the Herald since 2022.