KEY POINTS:
Love is certainly in the air this Saturday but there might be something else too - rain. I've had so many emails lately asking about the weather forecast for this romantic day. With plenty of weddings and outdoor celebrations planned for Saturday I thought I'd take a look
at the weather forecast. It's actually not looking too bad at this stage...but for the first time in a number of weeks we have showers or rain in the forecast.
Before I let you know which regions will be hot and steamy this Valentine's Day and which will be...um...frigid...I thought I'd take a quick look at the week ahead!
We're in an unsettled weather pattern at the moment...it's been with us for quite some time now and it's quite different to last Summer. High pressure will remain over the Tasman Sea this week but it's outer limits will only just cover us...that means we're vulnerable to lows attacking us from the sub-tropics and the Southern Ocean.
Monday will see a very weak front moving in from the south. It's going to weaken and fall apart as it heads north. It's not going to be a drought buster that's for sure. In the north a weak and unhealthy looking low pressure system is trying to come out of the sub-tropics. If you thought yesterday was humid in Auckland it should get worse today and tomorrow. Back to restless sleeps for some of us with the mercury unlikely to really drop below 20 degrees in Auckland Monday night/Tuesday morning.
A front attached to this low will come down from the north Monday afternoon and night, and further south over the lower North Island on Tuesday. It's weak and patchy - and while some localised heavy showers may help out the water tanks some regions may only see a few spits. It's messy and a hard one to predict in my view and I wouldn't want to blanket 3 days with the word "Rain" as it conjures up images of pouring rain...and I'm not really confident of that at all.
So between the northern front and southern front most places should see a few spits of rain this week, more cloud cover and higher humidity. 30 plus temperatures are also less likely this week as a cooler southerly moves up the nation. In fact, Southland and Otago may only make it into the mid teens.
Valentine's Day - it's still a number of days away but we've kicked off a forecast that we'll update each day, right up until Saturday morning. You can see our detailed Valentine's Day forecast here.
Overall the weather patterns remain a bit messy leading up to Saturday. At this stage we're picking that a low in the Tasman Sea may bring in some rain or showers over Northland and Auckland. Confidence levels are between 60 per cent for Northland and 40 per cent for Auckland. Nothing extreme looks likely at the time I wrote this blog... so if you're planning on a wedding then I'd say don't stress just yet!! A 40 per cent chance of showers for Auckland in February might just mean one heavy afternoon shower. We'll update that link above every day so we'll keep you posted on Saturday's weather.
For the rest of New Zealand mostly sunny skies should prevail. However if you're in the deep south, like Invercargill or Dunedin, you may feel a real chill in the air. A southerly may drop day time highs to just 16 degrees - and overnight lows going into single digits. Up to you if a cold cosy night is more romantic than a hot and humid one!!
All the best for those getting married this weekend! And fingers crossed we can get some much needed rain over the next few days!
- Philip Duncan
Photo / Geoff Sloan