End to big dry looks a month away

Farms in Northland have seen only a fraction of their normal rainfall. Photo / Christine Cornege

Farmers having to cull livestock because of parched paddocks are unlikely to have their soil dampened by rain before the end of next month.

As green pasture becomes more precious, dairy farmers are destocking early in Northland and Central Otago.

Federated Farmers said if any stock were not paying their way, they were being culled. While this was a usual autumn practice, some farmers had dried out earlier than they wanted which had affected their returns.

Adverse Events spokesman David Rose said the early cutting back on stock had led to a 30 per cent drop in Northland milk production from last year's levels. Production was estimated to be $18 million less than last year. But Fonterra's general manager of milk supply, Tim Deane, said last season was "awful", and it was about $30 million down from a normal year.

As pastures took a long time to recover, Northland farmers were digging into their winter feed, as well as buying supplementary supplies.

"The destocking, consequent drop in production, and the need to buy in feed will all have a significant financial effect," said Mr Rose.

He said unlike the Hawkes Bay, which had endured three dry seasons, in the north farmers were not used to drought and were not as prepared.

From November to January the Far North received less than a third of its normal rainfall, and after a dry March the soil moisture deficit was 130mm.

Northland's situation remained dire, and everywhere north of Taupo was hurting from lack of rain.

Rodney District was verging on drought, with paddocks browning off after weeks of sunshine.

National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research agricultural climatologist Alan Porteous said Kaitaia farmers he had spoken to felt it was a 50-year event. "It is the worst conditions that many of them would've expected in their working lives."

Niwa's three-month forecast indicated the substantial falls needed were unlikely to come in a hurry.

"The chance of normal rainfall is about 50 per cent. But you really need above-normal rain to rebuild the soil moisture reservoir, and the chance of that occurring is about 20 per cent," said Mr Porteous.

Federated Farmers was not expecting pastures to benefit from the rainfall until the end of April.

Waikato dairy farmer Stu Wadey said his region had a productive summer, but three rainless weeks had dried up his paddocks dramatically.

On a daily basis Waikato's milk production was 6 per cent down.

"We've got no grazing pasture, and we need about 100mm [of rain] to make up the deficit."

LITTLE RAIN, WARM DAYS LIKELY

Auckland's golden stretch of weather is set to continue, with only a drop of rain expected for the remainder of March.

Metservice predicts some showers this morning and a slim possibility of rain tomorrow, but the forecast until April is for fine, warm days.

Weatherwatch analyst Philip Duncan said temperatures should remain in the low 20s all week, and stay in the high teens overnight.

February was the driest in Auckland since records began in 1959, with only 5mm of rain. Its mean temperature was 25.5C.

March has also seen little rainfall, with some parts of the city fetching only 2mm of rain so far.

An El Nino weather pattern reintensified in February and remained in place, bringing southwesterly winds and dry conditions.

Mr Duncan said the weather could turn around quickly in April, and a deluge of rain could cause problems in bone-dry regions.

"While Auckland deals well with heavy rain, Northland and the Bay of Plenty, which are hilly and have many cracks in the soil, can suffer slips and flooding if torrential rain comes after a dry patch."