Sandra Paterson: Gas-guzzling good times are nearly over

I spent nearly $500 fixing my car last week and it is really time I got rid of it.

Apart from the fact that the mileage is high and it is starting to fall apart, I am very aware that this model has a poor safety record.

The thought of having to find another one is depressing, but in the past few days I've been wondering if I should instead be creating a life less reliant on petrol.

I don't normally have much daily head-space for global environmental issues, and what with bills to pay, the cat vomiting on the carpet, parent-teacher interviews and a couple of family members in hospital this past fortnight, I was not giving much thought to oil production levels.

But after watching an item on Campbell Live the other day and doing some related reading, it has registered all of a sudden on my radar screen: we are in deep doo-doo.

As John Campbell said, introducing the report, "Life as we know it will inevitably change - dramatically and fairly soon."

In summary, and according to most geologists, the world is about to start running out of oil. Big deal? Yes, it is when you realise just how much our lives revolve around the stuff.

If oil becomes scarce, we can kiss goodbye to just about every aspect of modern life: computers, heart valves, fanbelts, supermarket bags, tyres, sunglasses, ink, anaesthetics and telephones, the list of everyday items containing oil is enormous.

Take away petroleum, which is an ingredient in pesticides and fertiliser and upon which modern farming machinery depends, and agricultural yields would drop dramatically.

Shipping or flying what goods we do manage to produce to local or overseas markets would be astronomically expensive; and as for living a 40-minute commute from work or driving to another town just to see a friend, forget it.

We will look back fondly at the time petrol was a mere $1.30 a litre.

Sounds like a conspiracy theory, doesn't it. But there are way too many reputable scientists sounding the alarm for it to be mere conjecture.

Professor Geoff Kearsley from Otago University: "Oil scarcity has the capacity to devastate our economy, physically isolate us in ways not seen since before World War II and to transform our daily lives. It is already past the time when this should be our primary national concern."

When is this all going to happen? That depends on whether you listen to the optimists or the pessimists. We are already using more oil than we produce, by about four barrels to one.

Most predictions are that some time between 2005 and 2010, oil production will begin to decline at around 3 per cent a year. Others say it will be two or three decades later. But there are very few experts disputing the fact that we have a problem.

The baffling thing is that most people on the street know nothing about it. Politicians aren't talking about it; media outlets, with a few notable exceptions, are being slow to pick up on it; and you just don't hear oil talked about over the fence or the office water cooler, apart from complaints about the price of petrol.

We are talking about energy policy, but only in terms of power, not fuel. We are talking about transport and infrastructure, expanding our already-sprawling cities and building more roads without thinking whether anyone will be able to afford to drive on them.

Why, I asked Professor Kearsley this week. Why is no one talking about it?

Why do I suspect the most likely response to this column will be either a deafening silence or one or two critical letters to the editor about greenie scaremongers?

"I don't know," he said. "Maybe because it is just so scary, we don't want to talk about it."

Trevor Mallard, the Minister of Energy, said on Campbell Live that oil scarcity "is going to be a problem but maybe we're not that close to it yet. The best estimate that we have is that it will be in the 2030s."

Even if he is right, and most of the experts say it will be significantly sooner, why is the Government doing so little about it? Where is the select committee on the likely impact of global oil shortage? Where is the massive shift away from private motor cars to public transport?

If the scientists are to be believed, a massive change in the way we live is inevitable. But we can cushion the fall if politicians are willing to admit the problem and get to work on it.

Iceland, for example, has launched a major campaign to phase out fossil fuels and run its cars and fishing fleets on hydrogen fuel. Whether that is possible is another matter, but at least they are trying to address the problem.

Unfortunately, burying one's head in the sand is human nature. I've thought a lot about oil shortage this week and how it may affect my life. Should I be living closer to my ailing grandfather? Will it be impossible to continue sending my daughter to a school across town? How much money do I put into replacing my car?

But what do you bet that, within a month or so, I'll be thinking of other things. Life goes on. Until it putters and splutters to a stop.

* Sandra Paterson is a Mt Maunganui freelance writer.