Ruth Berry: Peters gets lucky, again

Winston Peters played a trump card this week as he swung into full campaign mode for a high-stakes election critical to his political future.

He was then dealt a spectacular ace when the Government opted to show its hand first, proffering the Iraqi diplomat on Monday, mistakenly believing he was the minister in Saddam Hussein's government that Peters would unmask in the House on Tuesday.

By the week's end he appeared to have a full house, racking up not only two but possibly more Iraqi "undesirables".

The New Zealand First leader's poll ratings are on the rise and while the diplomat was a lucky addition, this is the break the party was working towards.

Like many, New Zealand First was caught short by the 2002 early election and is this time planning for an early one.

Strategists believe the media and public are already beginning to frame the shape of the campaign and therefore the players.

Peters wants to be firmly in the media picture when that is happening - freeze-framed surging in the polls.

This is a crucial election for Peters, the 1996 kingmaker whose fall from grace saw him survive the 1999 election by 63 votes. He has been steadying the New Zealand First ship since with his heart set once again on being a key post-election force.

The recent public celebration of his 60th birthday at the annual Grey Power convention served as a reminder his time was limited.

Peters' considerable skill as a parliamentarian is now undisputed.

He is a master at his game and senior MPs of all political parties simply shake their heads and "hand it to him" as he runs another scandal.

National is smarting that, despite the Doone affair this week and its focus on the damage it could do Helen Clark, Peters has again relegated the party to the inside pages.

But it's still another step for Peters to be recognised as a statesman reliable enough to lead a powerful coalition, or a confidence-and-supply party.

That is his desire and if he is to succeed he probably has to pull it off this year.

New Zealand First's view of the timing aside, this week's events are therefore also critical on that front.

The party campaigned on three big policy planks during the last election and will do so again, but only immigration will again be in the top tier.

New Zealand First believes National leader Don Brash pinched the patent on the Treaty of Waitangi with his Orewa speech and that law and order is similarly too crowded a market.

In contrast, immigration is all Peters. Critics accuse him of playing to and inciting the xenophobes. He is sensitive about these attacks on his credibility. Very sensitive.

He was furious when Helen Clark ruled him out of post-election talks ahead of the last election, putting it down to her distaste for his immigration stance.

This week's coup boosts his authority on this issue, and generally. It increases his overall trust rating.

He can, with some justification, cite it as evidence of what he has been claiming all along - that the Immigration Service is a loose unit.

Whether or not voters approved of his line of attack, he had the Government on the back foot from the start. It is moving to expel some of his targets, saying that while they are not security risks as he alleges, they shouldn't be here.

Possibly more damaging is the Government's inability to explain why they shouldn't be here, exposing not just an absence of policy but opening it to attacks of political expediency - an area in which it is becoming more of a leaky vessel.

While Peter Doone had to go as police commissioner, the furore around whether Helen Clark inappropriately expedited his departure is likewise corrosive on the proper process versus expediency front.

Having delivered Peters a couple of sacrificial lambs (or wolves), the Government is now intent on shutting down the debate, retaliating by trying to weaken him on the integrity flank. It alleges that by naming potential undesirables he is defeating his own purpose by increasing their chances of being declared refugees and staying here.

It is demanding that he act responsibly and hand over his information.

Peters, on a roll, is highly unlikely to do that in a hurry.

But the MP, who has made leadership the focus of speeches this week, will be determined to avoid damaging his gains by risking any mistakes. He is working to deflect criticism of his motives by highlighting the support his stance has won from some resident Iraqis.

Despite the hyperbole, it's a fine balancing act and Peters' plan to launch his immigration policy at Orewa on May 28 gives that clue.

It signifies his ambition to supplant Brash as the second big political leader in Parliament, but also implies some need for constraint on perceived extremism.

If immigration is to be used for its big in-House hits, out in the traps, New Zealand First is relying on the "Golden Age Card".

Policies to improve the lot of senior citizens will be one of the party's top three issues, with "nationalism" - yet to be fully defined - its third.

The launch of the gold card and other goodies for senior citizens was the start of Peters' campaigning and he has been selling it at several Grey Power meetings a week since.

It would act as a "smart card", discounting subsidies for the elderly, many of which are already available but unused through lack of knowledge or inconvenience.

The aim is to implant a symbol of New Zealand First's legacy for the elderly in voters' wallets.

The party's reliance on the elderly vote is heightened this election.

It is nervous that the Maori Party will diminish its support among its other reliable voting block, but hopes the bitterness of the fight for the Maori constituency seats might inspire voters to turn to it for their party vote.

Peters will be quietly reminding Maori voters that almost half of his 13-strong caucus is Maori.

But his more immediate worry centres on timing. He took New Zealand First to the high 20s on immigration in the polls in early 1996, but peaked well before the election. In strategising around an early election, he is gambling on that again.