Richard Prebble: No coalition combination secure

A dead heat. After the special votes, the centre left is just 925 votes ahead of the centre right. No wonder Helen Clark is finding it hard to form a government.

With 50 seats, 51 with Jim Anderton, Labour needs the support of two parties to get 61 votes for a majority in Parliament.

Getting support for a confidence vote is no problem. What is more difficult is getting support for a coherent set of policies and for the procedural motions needed to run Parliament, "that the question be now put".

In the last Parliament, United Future gave support on procedural motions that let Clark pass even the Prostitution and Civil Union Bills. No third party is ever going to give such an accommodation again.

Coalitions have proven very dangerous for third parties.

A prescriptive coalition agreement like NZ First with National proved unable to handle unforeseen events.

An outside-of-cabinet deal like United's made the party look like a doormat for the Government.

In proportional representation countries, the model is for third parties to demand ministries in exchange for their support.

Third parties demand the ministry most important to their constituency, hence the Greens' request for Energy and Transport. But the six Green MPs are not enough to reach the magic number of 61 for a majority.

Clark is aware that National, NZ First, United, Act and the Maori Party would represent a majority.

Unlikely but consider this: In the Maori seats, the Labour Party and the Maori Party are rivals and my enemy's enemy is my friend.

Don Brash also needs to consider that no MMP government has been formed without the Maori seats.

A deal with the Maori Party brings four MPs to the centre right. The Maori Party wants tax cuts and education vouchers, both centre right policies.

As Rodney Hide has pointed out, there is no parliamentary majority to abolish the Maori seats, so that should not be an issue.

National could adopt Act's foreshore policy, letting Maori have their day in court and in the unlikely event of any iwi winning, just sitting down and negotiating public access.

A deal on the foreshore would win the support of the Maori Party.

Although Brash has conceded, it is not certain that Clark can get a deal from the Greens, United Future or NZ First.

Clark could drop the Greens and go with NZ First and United. This would cost Labour dearly among the growing Asian community. No combination is easy or stable.

For Labour to go it alone as a minority government is to gamble that National and the Maori Party never reach an accommodation.

Jim Bolger could have done it. I am not sure Brash has the skills to build such a coalition but what about the new boy, unburdened by the Orewa speech, John Key?