Richard Prebble: It's looking good for Brash

Helen Clark can feel power slipping away. Her spin doctors have been saying since the election "Labour is just hours away from forming a stable government, we just have a few details to clear up with the party leaders".

When the special votes were counted, the commentators said there were 70 MPs with whom Helen Clark could form a government (everyone but National and ACT).

This weekend it's a proposal from Don Brash that Winston Peters is considering; that National has 57 MPs, the same as Labour - 57 - changes everything.

Winston Peters' preference has been to abstain, extract policy concessions and let the largest party govern.

When both Labour and National have 57 MPs supporting them, who is the largest "party"?

He now must be kingmaker.

How has this happened? I modestly remind you that this column predicted it.

The first development was the realisation that the Maori Party's priority was not electing a Labour government but getting a pledge to review the foreshore and seabed legislation - something Helen Clark cannot do, and National can.

It was Rodney Hide who said "as the right has not got the votes in parliament to abolish the Maori seats, let us park the issue". So the biggest obstacle was overcome.

Clark's dependency on the Green Party's support has cost her Peter Dunne's support, as he said it would.

The Greens are toxic. Last election Clark herself said it was not possible to have a stable coalition with a party which was anti-growth and pro-drugs.

Abstaining to support a Labour/Green government is hard enough for Winston Peters, but now having to vote for it may be a step too far.

The most extraordinary development last week was, while the press gallery staked out the Beehive, the parties of the centre and right sat down together to talk about whether they could form a government and work together.

In our short history of MMP coalition-building, this has never happened. Coalition negotiation has always been one-to-one.

I am told that, to their surprise, the party leaders got on well.

The fact that their meeting was not leaked increased their confidence in each other.

What they talked about was whether there was a process for them to be able to deal with issues. They have made enough progress to be able to write to the New Zealand First leader and say: "We can form a viable, stable government."

An increasingly desperate Clark said to Peters last Thursday: "I recognise that I can not form a government without you, I need you in the government and I will do whatever it takes."

But can she?

Peters' number one request is to lift the level of superannuation from 65 per cent of the average wage to 68 per cent.

For Labour, with its very expensive interest-free student loan and family support promises, this can only be done by reneging on its campaign promises or increasing taxes!

And the Reserve Bank Governor has warned further spending will see interest rates rise.

Because super is taxed, the effect of National's tax cuts is to lift National super to nearly 68 per cent.

Peters, if he supports Brash, gets his number one priority from the first budget.

Winston Peters has been a treasurer. He realises the Reserve Bank Governor's warnings mean New Zealand First and Labour's spending promises do not add up.

The arithmetic is moving in favour of PM Don Brash.

- HERALD ON SUNDAY