National: Win or Lose

Don Brash

IF IT WINS

If National wins, former leader Bill English might join the entourage in lifting Don Brash shoulder-high to the Beehive for salvaging National from its 20.93 per cent result last election.

It says much that 43-year-old Mr English would be National's most experienced minister.

Mr English would be Education Minister, possibly across all sectors, which is unusual.

He would also retain associate finance, giving John Key advice about the politics of being Finance Minister.

The other big danger area for a government - health - would go to another experienced operator, Tony Ryall.

Murray McCully, special adviser to Dr Brash, could expect a light workload to help the leader and, if necessary, oversee the consultation with support and/or coalition parties.

Former MP Tau Henare could expect to become Maori Affairs Minister.

Epsom MP Richard Worth would become Attorney-General.Wayne Mapp or Simon Power would get defence.

Former rebel Maurice Williamson would be back in the Cabinet, as would Georgina te Heuheu and Katherine Rich. Judith Collins would be Welfare Minister.

A coalition with United Future would mean that foreign affairs went to United Future leader Peter Dunne.

IF IT LOSES

The blame

The mood in the National Party, if it fails to win power, will be less poisonous than in Labour's.

That's because it has done a lot better than most imagined against a Government with a popular Prime Minister, record surpluses and low unemployment.

It will give itself credit whether it wins or loses and that will go to general manager Stephen Joyce, the man behind the National Party ads, and leader Dr Don Brash.

The blame is likely to be taken by Dr Brash himself.

Leadership

It is unlikely any move would be made against Dr Brash's leadership soon. He will have brought into a caucus new and loyal MPs whose expectations about his performance as Opposition leader will be low.

If he was an embarrassment in their third term and Labour looks like securing an historic fourth term, the knives would be out. But the long, bitter election campaign is also likely to have sharpened Dr Brash's skills.