Matt McCarten: There's always a career in entertainment, Winston

Matt McCarten

Apart from Winston Peters, can you name more than two or three of his NZ First MPs? I thought not. When Winston charms us, NZ First does well, but when punters get nervous about Winston's antics, his support dives.

A few weeks back, NZ First was shooting past 12 per cent and setting the political agenda. But the average of the last six public polls has NZ First at 7.4 per cent, and dropping. Current support will get NZ First 11 MPs in the next parliament - not bad until you realise they have 13 MPs at present.

When you add NZ First's support to National's or Labour's (each about 40 per cent) both would still need an additional small party to make a government. That takes away Winston's "king- or queen-maker" role he was enjoying just a few weeks ago. Like Jim Anderton and Peter Dunne, he is becoming just another bit player. These three all know their parties only exist because they have a seat. When they go, their party will disappear with them.

So what has happened to NZ First's support? When Winston was riding high, just a few weeks ago, the majority of his supporters said they wanted NZ First to go with Labour after the election. Two weeks ago, support was halved and the remaining supporters said they wanted Winston to go with National.

That's pretty conclusive evidence that Labour-leaning NZ First supporters have been frightened back to Labour and left him with a right-wing rump. It must drive Winston nuts that Labour has created a media consensus that NZ First is National's likely coalition partner. It has become a self-fulfilling prophesy. Winston's remaining supporters do want him to get into bed with Don Brash.

Winston has no choice but to stick to his line of not declaring his position on which party he will support until after the election. But that allows his political opponents to cement in the perception that NZ First is part of the National camp. That will prevent him from getting much more than 5-7 per cent on election day.

If the downward trend continues, Winston is unlikely to go with Labour because he will have to compete with Dunne, Anderton and the Greens for Helen Clark's attention. His only option is to go with National - if he can do it as a two-party coalition. But the treachery of the Nats in reneging on his last coalition deal that deposed him as deputy prime minister must still rankle.

Winston is a proud man. His humiliation at the hands of Jenny Shipley was wounding. When she carried out her cabinet coup, he was devastated to find that when he stood up from the Cabinet table and announced that NZ First was out of her government, his lieutenant Tau Henare remained seated. It must be galling for Winston to now see the re-born Henare telling the world he will sweep the floor if his new boss Brash tells him to do it. Propping up National again and letting Henare back into the cabinet trough may in the end be the deciding factor in determining what Winston will do after the election.

In the meantime, though, the great campaigning bodgie will show us how to run a real election. At 60, he's still a charmer although it's starting to wear thin. His tacky campaign opening reminded me of a washed-up pop icon like Elvis in his declining years. How sad that he feels he needs to thrill his Tauranga matrons by having a biker on a Harley driving him on to the stage. I've always had a sneaky suspicion Winston is really an entertainer rather then a politician.

Winston's nonsense about dangerous Islamic terrorists conspiring to attack us aided and abetted by the New Zealand Muslim community is a new political low. But more revealing was his outrageous slander against two Iraqi New Zealanders recently. Under parliamentary privilege of course, Winston accused them of being former members of the Iraq Ba'ath Party and active supporters of Saddam Hussein's murderous regime.

These two men said they were in fact opponents of Hussein and had never been members of his party. They couldn't afford to sue him. Instead, they went to parliament to ask Winston for an apology. Winston was a no-show even though he knew they were there and what they wanted. A bit gutless, really.

Winston may have some residual boyish charm that endears him to some but some of his cynical and desperate tactics of late do real harm to innocent people who don't deserve to be used as political pawns.

Should voters abdicate the decision whether Clark or Brash should run our country to a man like this? I think not.

- HERALD ON SUNDAY