In the past few weeks I've met several Green-leaning voters who said they were switching to Labour because they were frightened by the National Party's rise and wanted to vote strategically to ensure a centre-left government.
They are afraid the Greens are going to go under the 5 per cent
threshold and that their vote could be wasted. One person said that when he was called at home recently by a polling company, he said he'd be voting Labour. That's called self-fulfilling prophesy. He doesn't grasp the obvious - that he is harming both Labour and the Greens.
What surprises me is that these people are educated middle-class types and seemed politically quite sophisticated. Yet they seem to not understand the basics of MMP. Scary really. I asked them what their preferred election outcome would be. All said they hoped for a Labour-Green coalition. I explained to them that if they didn't vote for the Greens then of course the Greens would get under 5 per cent and lose all their MPs. The most likely government would then be National. All were suitably appalled and asked how they should use their vote strategically.
The Greens have been hovering around the 5-7 per cent polling mark. It didn't occur to me that Green voters would be panicked into deserting their party for Labour in the mistaken belief they were helping to defeat National. Last Monday, Green MPs must have choked on their muesli when they read the details of the One News-Colmar Brunton poll that showed their party diving to 3 per cent. Even though the poll showed Labour soaring to 45 per cent, it won't put Labour in to Government unless Winston says so. Another couple of polls like this and the Greens are in big trouble.
Helen Clark understands the problem. That's why she invited Green co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons to share a platform with her last week to talk about their transport policy. Clark knows who she wants her coalition partner to be. Did you see Clark beaming at Fitzsimons at the TV3 leaders' debate on Thursday night?
Earlier in the year Labour Party insiders were spinning that Winston had the inside run as preferred coalition partner. Since then, members of the Green Party have been on their best behaviour with Labour, co-operating whenever they can. On the other hand, Winston - who has tried so hard all year to be a statesman - has blown it in the last month and gone back over to his dark side. My Labour Party mates tell me now that they wouldn't touch Winston with a barge pole.
So it really is a choice between a Labour-Green or a National-NZ First government. Both Green leaders have been MPs for three terms and have made no secret they badly want to be in Cabinet. Next term will be Fitzsimons' last term and she will want to make a difference before she retires. Rod Donald is highly capable and could probably turn his talents to almost any portfolio. He wants a real Cabinet job and won't allow himself to be marginalised into a pretend ministry.
If they get other ministers then it'd be a toss up between Sue Bradford, Keith Locke and Sue Kedgley. If the Greens get 8 per cent they will get two of their more talented leaders into parliament: former party convenor Catherine Delahunty and campaign co-ordinator Russel Norman.
But the Greens will have to pull finger on their campaign for them to stick around. The prize for the "too clever by half" billboards is clearly theirs. I have tried hard to understand what on earth their billboards are about. Every time I sit at the traffic lights and try to decipher what the meaning of their board design is, I fail miserably. I know it must be the Green Party boards because it is the only billboard that has green on it. I can see there is bird on it but I have no idea what any of the slogans say nor if it even has a Green Party logo on it. The font can't be read.
I've discussed it with others. It is clear that no one understands them. The Greens should know better. Billboards 101 - keep it simple. Just look at Labour's and National's - simple and effective. If the rest of the Greens' election materials are like this then they are in trouble. However, now that Clark has taken them under her wing, they should still make it back.
So for you Green supporters who want to vote strategically to get a Labour-Green government - give your party vote to the Greens and your electorate vote to Labour (in Maori electorates give your electorate vote to the Maori Party candidates).
Bottom line: if the Greens don't make it over 5 per cent then National will win. Don't say you haven't been warned.
Matt McCarten
Opinion
In the past few weeks I've met several Green-leaning voters who said they were switching to Labour because they were frightened by the National Party's rise and wanted to vote strategically to ensure a centre-left government.
They are afraid the Greens are going to go under the 5 per cent
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